Kodai Senga
RHP
NYM
9
HRs Allowed
11.4%
HR Rate (Pool)
20.4%
Overall HR/FB
5.72
FIP
4.33
xFIP
+1.39
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
1.0
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
20.4%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
90th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
74.0%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
5.72
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
90th pctile
4.33
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+1.39
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
95th pctile
11.4%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
79
Pool Matchups
9
HRs Allowed (Pool)
3
Top-15 Matchups
1
HRs to Top-15
11.4%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 11.8% | 1.0 | 99.5mph | 103.2mph | 24.5° | 394ft | Flat +0.4pp |
| Last 15 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 16.0% | 1.33 | 97.6mph | 104.0mph | 27.5° | 398ft | Up +4.6pp |
| Last 30 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 16.0% | 1.33 | 97.6mph | 104.0mph | 27.5° | 398ft | Up +4.6pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
98.2
Avg Max EV
109.6
Max EV Allowed
37
Hard-Hit Proxy · 74.0%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
103.6
Avg HR EV
28.9°
Avg HR Launch
397
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Ian Happ | 106.8mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Dansby Swanson | 104.4mph | 104.4mph | 22° | 380ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-23 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 101.9mph | 101.9mph | 27° | 409ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-23 | Seiya Suzuki | 101.1mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Nico Hoerner | 100.8mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Michael Busch | 100.1mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Sal Stewart | 106.9mph | 106.9mph | 26° | 410ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-16 | Spencer Steer | 102.9mph | 102.9mph | 35° | 392ft | Yes |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #11 | 70 | Citi Field | 101.9mph | 27.0° | 409ft |
| 2026-06-23 | Dansby Swanson | #119 | 44 | Citi Field | 104.4mph | 22.0° | 380ft |
| 2026-06-16 | Sal Stewart | #31 | 65 | Great American Ball Park | 106.9mph | 26.0° | 410ft |
| 2026-06-16 | Spencer Steer | #36 | 63 | Great American Ball Park | 102.9mph | 35.0° | 392ft |
| 2026-04-26 | Hunter Goodman | #38 | 65 | Citi Field | 104.9mph | 31.0° | 390.0ft |
| 2026-04-17 | Ian Happ | #30 | 66 | Wrigley Field | 106.4mph | 33.0° | 411.0ft |
| 2026-04-17 | Moisés Ballesteros | #39 | 64 | Wrigley Field | 96.3mph | 32.0° | 365.0ft |
| 2026-04-17 | Nico Hoerner | #181 | 30 | Wrigley Field | 99.1mph | 29.0° | 392.0ft |
| 2026-04-11 | Tyler Soderstrom | #97 | 37 | Citi Field | 109.6mph | 25.0° | 420.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 205 | 37.5% | +2.6 | 81.6 | 36.0° | 4 |
| Cutter | 130 | 23.8% | +2.9 | 80.8 | 18.0° | 2 |
| Forkball | 115 | 21.1% | +1.0 | 82.3 | 14.3° | 0 |
| Sweeper | 47 | 8.6% | +3.0 | 83.0 | 16.5° | 1 |
| Slider | 25 | 4.6% | +1.2 | 73.8 | 28.7° | 1 |
| Sinker | 22 | 4.0% | +3.0 | 105.4 | 28.3° | 1 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
74.0%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Nico Hoerner | #202 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Alex Bregman | #136 | 41 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Carson Kelly | #125 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Dansby Swanson | #119 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-23 | Michael Busch | #75 | 52 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Seiya Suzuki | #74 | 52 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Ian Happ | #20 | 68 | 🔵 C+ | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #11 | 70 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-22 | Nico Hoerner | #191 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Alex Bregman | #127 | 43 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Carson Kelly | #115 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Dansby Swanson | #110 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Michael Busch | #70 | 54 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Seiya Suzuki | #69 | 54 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Matt Shaw | #60 | 56 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Ian Happ | #17 | 70 | 🟡 B | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #13 | 72 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Blake Dunn | #153 | 39 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Eugenio Suárez | #65 | 55 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Tyler Stephenson | #55 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Spencer Steer | #36 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-16 | Sal Stewart | #31 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-16 | Matt McLain | #23 | 67 | 🔵 C+ | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Nathaniel Lowe | #21 | 67 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-16 | JJ Bleday | #4 | 76 | 🟡 B | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Troy Johnston | #195 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Edouard Julien | #188 | 35 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Brenton Doyle | #187 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Kyle Karros | #176 | 37 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Ezequiel Tovar | #167 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Willi Castro | #157 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-26 | TJ Rumfield | #156 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Mickey Moniak | #63 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Hunter Goodman | #38 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-25 | Troy Johnston | #237 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Brenton Doyle | #225 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Kyle Karros | #220 | 30 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Ezequiel Tovar | #214 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-25 | TJ Rumfield | #213 | 31 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Willi Castro | #203 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Edouard Julien | #192 | 35 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Mickey Moniak | #80 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-25 | Hunter Goodman | #68 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Seiya Suzuki | #261 | · | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Michael Busch | #214 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Nico Hoerner | #181 | 30 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-17 | Alex Bregman | #174 | 32 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #152 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Carson Kelly | #73 | 54 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Dansby Swanson | #62 | 57 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Moisés Ballesteros | #39 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-17 | Ian Happ | #30 | 66 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-11 | Jacob Wilson | #199 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Luis Urias | #188 | 21 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Lawrence Butler | #129 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Tyler Soderstrom | #97 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-11 | JJ Bleday | #95 | 34 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Nick Kurtz | #41 | 53 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Brent Rooker | #39 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Max Muncy | #30 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Shea Langeliers | #26 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Patrick Bailey | #233 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Jung Hoo Lee | #232 | 25 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Tyler Fitzgerald | #218 | 22 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Dominic Smith | #197 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Wilmer Flores | #169 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Heliot Ramos | #157 | 30 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Casey Schmitt | #156 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Matt Chapman | #133 | 36 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Willy Adames | #129 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Victor Scott II | #205 | 21 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Masyn Winn | #202 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Brendan Donovan | #194 | 31 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Lars Nootbaar | #190 | 31 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Nolan Arenado | #188 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Alec Burleson | #168 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Nolan Gorman | #142 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Willson Contreras | #117 | 41 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-31 | Ivan Herrera | #87 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |