2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 10 Bo Bichette 4 HRs · 11 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 12 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs 1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 10 Bo Bichette 4 HRs · 11 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 12 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs
Luinder Avila
Luinder Avila RHP KC
51 matchups scored · 6 game days
5 HRs Allowed
9.8% HR Rate (Pool)
7.8% Overall HR/FB
4.34 FIP
4.72 xFIP
-0.38 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
0.83
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
7.8%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
11th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
62.5%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
4.34
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
62th pctile
4.72
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.38
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
28th pctile
9.8%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
51
Pool Matchups
5
HRs Allowed (Pool)
3
Top-15 Matchups
1
HRs to Top-15
9.8%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 17 2 1 5.9% 0.5 96.0mph 108.5mph 38.0° 416ft Down -3.9pp
Last 15 25 3 4 16.0% 1.33 98.2mph 106.1mph 35.8° 410ft Up +6.2pp
Last 30 42 5 5 11.9% 1.0 95.7mph 104.5mph 35.4° 404ft Up +2.1pp
Batted-Ball Damage
48 tracked BBE from 51 pool matchups
96.2
109.3
30
0
104.5
35.4°
404
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-23 Junior Caminero 109.3mph 108.5mph 38° 416ft Yes
2026-06-23 Jonathan Aranda 105.7mph · · · ·
2026-06-23 Richie Palacios 100.7mph · · · ·
2026-06-17 CJ Abrams 104.6mph · · · ·
2026-06-17 James Wood 104.5mph · · · ·
2026-06-17 Daylen Lile 104.4mph · · · ·
2026-06-17 José Tena 101.4mph · · · ·
2026-06-17 Keibert Ruiz 101.2mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
6 days · 5 total HRs
HRs Allowed
5 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-23 Junior Caminero #62 55 Tropicana Field 108.5mph 38.0° 416ft
2026-06-12 Yordan Álvarez #36 62 Kauffman Stadium 108.7mph 31.0° 419ft
2026-06-12 Christian Walker #76 52 Kauffman Stadium 99.7mph 40.0° 370ft
2026-06-12 Brice Matthews #214 24 Kauffman Stadium 107.5mph 34.0° 433ft
2026-06-01 JJ Bleday #2 77 Great American Ball Park 98.3mph 34.0° 380ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Fastball 208 26.1% +0.5 82.4 20.5° 1
Sinker 203 25.5% +0.9 84.6 12.6° 0
Slider 199 25.0% -0.3 77.9 13.7° 1
Curveball 111 13.9% +1.1 82.4 15.6° 2
Changeup 76 9.5% +0.7 85.9 5.6° 0
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
62.5%
62.5%
All Scored Matchups
51 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-23 Chandler Simpson #229 16 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-23 Taylor Walls #218 24 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-23 Richie Palacios #212 27 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-23 Hunter Feduccia #198 30 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-23 Cedric Mullins #182 34 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-23 Yandy Díaz #108 46 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-23 Jonny DeLuca #93 49 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-23 Jonathan Aranda #87 50 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-23 Junior Caminero #62 55 🟠 C 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-17 Nasim Nuñez #232 14 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-17 José Tena #122 45 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-17 Daylen Lile #112 46 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-17 Keibert Ruiz #104 47 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-17 CJ Abrams #64 55 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-17 Dylan Crews #44 59 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-17 Curtis Mead #32 64 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-17 James Wood #6 75 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 Christian Vázquez #226 19 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-12 Brice Matthews #214 24 ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-06-12 José Altuve #195 30 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 Jeremy Peña #177 34 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Cam Smith #104 46 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Isaac Paredes #94 49 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Christian Walker #76 52 🟠 C 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-12 Yordan Álvarez #36 62 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-06 Trevor Larnach #198 30 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Austin Martin #193 31 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-06 Josh Bell #191 31 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Tristan Gray #161 37 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Royce Lewis #156 38 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-06-06 Ryan Kreidler #129 42 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-06 Brooks Lee #88 49 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-06 Kody Clemens #48 58 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-01 Edwin Arroyo #156 15 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-06-01 Blake Dunn #106 36 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-01 Matt McLain #85 41 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-01 Tyler Stephenson #64 47 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-01 Spencer Steer #63 47 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-01 Eugenio Suárez #60 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-01 Sal Stewart #22 60 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-01 JJ Bleday #2 77 🟡 B 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-01 Nathaniel Lowe #1 78 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-04 Joey Ortiz #237 18 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-04 Caleb Durbin #234 23 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-04 Sal Frelick #232 21 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-04 Isaac Collins #228 26 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-04 Jackson Chourio #219 33 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-04 William Contreras #218 26 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-04 Rhys Hoskins #215 32 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-04 Brice Turang #214 27 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-04 Christian Yelich #205 33 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
Six home runs to freedom

Luinder Avila's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

51 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.21 · build 521

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.