2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Nick Lodolo
Nick Lodolo LHP CIN
56 matchups scored · 7 game days
6 HRs Allowed
10.7% HR Rate (Pool)
32.2% Overall HR/FB
7.31 FIP
5.23 xFIP
+2.08 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
0.86
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
32.2%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
98th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
65.4%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
7.31
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
98th pctile
5.23
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+2.08
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
98th pctile
10.7%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
56
Pool Matchups
6
HRs Allowed (Pool)
9
Top-15 Matchups
1
HRs to Top-15
10.7%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 15 2 0 0.0% 0.0 99.1mph · · · Down -10.7pp
Last 15 22 3 0 0.0% 0.0 97.3mph · · · Down -10.7pp
Last 30 47 6 4 8.5% 0.67 96.6mph 107.8mph 26.0° 417ft Down -2.2pp
Batted-Ball Damage
52 tracked BBE from 56 pool matchups
97.3
112.0
34
0
106.4
28.7°
406
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-23 Jackson Chourio 107.6mph · · · ·
2026-06-23 William Contreras 106.8mph · · · ·
2026-06-23 Gary Sánchez 105.1mph · · · ·
2026-06-23 Brice Turang 103.8mph · · · ·
2026-06-23 Andrew Vaughn 100.3mph · · · ·
2026-06-17 Juan Soto 109.0mph · · · ·
2026-06-17 Carson Benge 106.0mph · · · ·
2026-06-17 Luis Torrens 105.0mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
7 days · 6 total HRs
HRs Allowed
6 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-06 Jordan Walker #19 67 Busch Stadium 105.4mph 25.0° 401ft
2026-05-31 Ronald Acuña Jr. #12 75 Great American Ball Park 112.0mph 27.0° 438ft
2026-05-31 Jorge Mateo #38 66 Great American Ball Park 108.4mph 24.0° 425ft
2026-05-25 Marcus Semien #101 45 Citi Field 105.6mph 28.0° 403.0ft
2026-05-18 Bryson Stott #48 60 Citizens Bank Park 103.3mph 44.0° 360.0ft
2026-05-18 Alec Bohm #192 34 Citizens Bank Park 103.6mph 24.0° 409.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Sinker 213 26.4% +1.2 86.5 19.9° 4
Curveball 211 26.1% +0.9 79.4 14.7° 0
Fastball 197 24.4% +3.0 84.0 29.7° 4
Changeup 187 23.1% -0.3 82.0 15.2° 1
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
65.4%
65.4%
All Scored Matchups
56 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-23 Joey Ortiz #197 30 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-23 Blake Perkins #112 45 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-23 Andrew Vaughn #97 48 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-23 William Contreras #89 50 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-23 Brice Turang #44 58 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-23 Gary Sánchez #31 62 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-23 Jake Bauers #10 72 🟡 B 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-23 Jackson Chourio #3 77 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-17 Zack Short #145 41 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-17 Carson Benge #108 46 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-17 Luis Torrens #84 52 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-17 Bo Bichette #67 55 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-17 Marcus Semien #49 58 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-17 Mark Vientos #47 58 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-17 Juan Soto #11 73 🟡 B ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-12 Geraldo Perdomo #139 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 Ryan Waldschmidt #87 50 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Nolan Arenado #46 59 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-12 Ildemaro Vargas #44 60 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Ketel Marte #21 68 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-12 Gabriel Moreno #17 69 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-12 Corbin Carroll #2 85 🟢 A 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-06 Masyn Winn #189 32 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-06 Bryan Torres #153 38 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 José Fermín #148 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-06 Pedro Pagés #109 47 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-06 Alec Burleson #95 48 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Iván Herrera #70 52 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-06 Jordan Walker #19 67 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-31 Chadwick Tromp #255 22 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-31 Ha-Seong Kim #171 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-31 Mauricio Dubón #153 41 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-31 Ozzie Albies #86 52 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-31 Jorge Mateo #38 66 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-31 Austin Riley #22 70 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-31 Ronald Acuña Jr. #12 75 🟡 B 🔥 HOT 💥
2026-05-31 Michael Harris II #6 80 🟢 A 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-31 Matt Olson #1 87 🟢 A ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-25 Nick Morabito #207 24 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-25 Luis Torrens #189 29 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-25 A.J. Ewing #132 40 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-05-25 Marcus Semien #101 45 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-25 Carson Benge #81 49 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-25 Brett Baty #48 57 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-25 Tyrone Taylor #47 57 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-25 Bo Bichette #44 59 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-25 Mark Vientos #30 63 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-18 Alec Bohm #192 34 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-18 J.T. Realmuto #168 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-18 Trea Turner #141 41 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-18 Brandon Marsh #97 49 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-18 Justin Crawford #86 51 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-18 Adolis García #85 51 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-18 Bryson Stott #48 60 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-18 Bryce Harper #6 85 🟢 A ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-18 Kyle Schwarber #1 100 🥇 S 📈 WARM ·
Six home runs to freedom

Nick Lodolo's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

56 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 516

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.