Chris Paddack
RHP
MIA
10
HRs Allowed
11.2%
HR Rate (Pool)
17.5%
Overall HR/FB
4.71
FIP
4.09
xFIP
+0.62
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
1.0
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
17.5%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
84th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
77.0%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
4.71
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
72th pctile
4.09
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.62
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
79th pctile
11.2%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
89
Pool Matchups
10
HRs Allowed (Pool)
16
Top-15 Matchups
2
HRs to Top-15
11.2%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 11.1% | 1.0 | 101.5mph | 110.7mph | 27.0° | 409ft | Flat -0.1pp |
| Last 15 | 36 | 4 | 3 | 8.3% | 0.75 | 99.0mph | 108.1mph | 29.0° | 404ft | Down -2.9pp |
| Last 30 | 45 | 5 | 4 | 8.9% | 0.8 | 99.0mph | 106.5mph | 30.0° | 406ft | Down -2.3pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
100.0
Avg Max EV
113.3
Max EV Allowed
57
Hard-Hit Proxy · 77.0%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
104.8
Avg HR EV
28.6°
Avg HR Launch
395
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 113.3mph | 113.3mph | 33° | 429ft | Yes |
| 2026-05-29 | Matt Olson | 111.1mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Michael Harris II | 109.4mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Jorge Mateo | 103.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-23 | Jordan Walker | 112.1mph | 108.0mph | 21° | 389ft | Yes |
| 2026-05-23 | Iván Herrera | 110.2mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-23 | JJ Wetherholt | 104.6mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-23 | Alec Burleson | 104.2mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | #87 | 50 | Great American Ball Park | 113.3mph | 33.0° | 429ft |
| 2026-05-23 | Jordan Walker | #9 | 76 | Great American Ball Park | 108.0mph | 21.0° | 389.0ft |
| 2026-05-16 | Angel Martínez | #45 | 61 | Progressive Field | 102.9mph | 33.0° | 395.0ft |
| 2026-05-03 | Bryson Stott | #219 | 14 | loanDepot Park | 101.6mph | 33.0° | 412.0ft |
| 2026-04-21 | Nathan Church | #162 | 29 | loanDepot Park | 95.4mph | 32.0° | 370.0ft |
| 2026-04-15 | Matt Olson | #4 | 56 | Truist Park | 106.8mph | 25.0° | 423.0ft |
| 2026-04-15 | Austin Riley | #32 | 43 | Truist Park | 109.3mph | 22.0° | 400.0ft |
| 2026-04-15 | Ozzie Albies | #56 | 36 | Truist Park | 99.7mph | 38.0° | 370.0ft |
| 2026-04-10 | Javier Báez | #176 | 30 | Comerica Park | 100.5mph | 22.0° | 354.0ft |
| 2026-04-05 | Ben Rice | #20 | 58 | Yankee Stadium | 110.0mph | 27.0° | 410.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 339 | 34.4% | +0.8 | 81.5 | 33.0° | 2 |
| Changeup | 262 | 26.6% | +0.3 | 80.9 | 4.7° | 1 |
| Cutter | 126 | 12.8% | +2.7 | 83.9 | 21.5° | 3 |
| Curveball | 112 | 11.4% | +1.5 | 85.9 | 9.6° | 1 |
| Sweeper | 82 | 8.3% | +0.3 | 78.6 | 22.6° | 1 |
| Sinker | 64 | 6.5% | -2.3 | 84.6 | 29.4° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
77.0%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Chadwick Tromp | #246 | 16 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Ozzie Albies | #124 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Dominic Smith | #103 | 47 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Jorge Mateo | #99 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | #87 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mike Yastrzemski | #59 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Austin Riley | #51 | 58 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Michael Harris II | #19 | 68 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-29 | Matt Olson | #13 | 71 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | Victor Scott II | #258 | 24 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-23 | César Prieto | #235 | 30 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-23 | Masyn Winn | #218 | 34 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | Bryan Torres | #175 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | JJ Wetherholt | #103 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | Nolan Gorman | #90 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-23 | Alec Burleson | #76 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | Iván Herrera | #61 | 59 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | Jordan Walker | #9 | 76 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-22 | Victor Scott II | #228 | 23 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-22 | Masyn Winn | #168 | 34 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-22 | Pedro Pagés | #131 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-22 | Nathan Church | #87 | 44 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-22 | Ivan Herrera | #79 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-22 | JJ Wetherholt | #69 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-22 | Nolan Gorman | #53 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-22 | Alec Burleson | #52 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-22 | Jordan Walker | #8 | 72 | 🟡 B | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-16 | Steven Kwan | #236 | 20 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-16 | Brayan Rocchio | #199 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-16 | Travis Bazzana | #198 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-16 | Austin Hedges | #151 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-16 | José Ramírez | #111 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-16 | Daniel Schneemann | #90 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-16 | Chase DeLauter | #79 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-16 | Kyle Manzardo | #73 | 53 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-16 | Angel Martínez | #45 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-03 | Bryson Stott | #219 | 14 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-05-03 | Justin Crawford | #214 | 15 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-03 | J.T. Realmuto | #178 | 22 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Adolis García | #140 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Alec Bohm | #128 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Brandon Marsh | #109 | 29 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Bryce Harper | #108 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Trea Turner | #76 | 34 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Kyle Schwarber | #32 | 40 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Hyeseong Kim | #35 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Andy Pages | #19 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Alex Freeland | #14 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Will Smith | #7 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Kyle Tucker | #6 | 66 | 🔵 C+ | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Teoscar Hernández | #4 | 68 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Freddie Freeman | #3 | 72 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Max Muncy | #2 | 77 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Shohei Ohtani | #1 | 86 | 🟢 A | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Victor Scott II | #216 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Thomas Saggese | #172 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Nathan Church | #162 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-21 | Nolan Gorman | #154 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Masyn Winn | #114 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Ivan Herrera | #113 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | JJ Wetherholt | #109 | 38 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Alec Burleson | #73 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Jordan Walker | #10 | 69 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Mauricio Dubón | #71 | 37 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Ozzie Albies | #56 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-15 | Mike Yastrzemski | #38 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Michael Harris II | #35 | 47 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Austin Riley | #32 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-15 | Dominic Smith | #30 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Drake Baldwin | #22 | 51 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | #11 | 55 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Matt Olson | #4 | 56 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-10 | Gleyber Torres | #201 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Javier Báez | #176 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-10 | Dillon Dingler | #163 | 34 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Colt Keith | #154 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Wenceel Pérez | #98 | 39 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Spencer Torkelson | #86 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Riley Greene | #48 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Kerry Carpenter | #18 | 50 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Paul Goldschmidt | #131 | 40 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Jasson Dominguez | #82 | 40 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Anthony Volpe | #68 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Cody Bellinger | #56 | 48 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Austin Wells | #31 | 52 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Ben Rice | #20 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-05 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | #13 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Trent Grisham | #12 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Aaron Judge | #4 | 70 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |