2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs
Stephen Kolek
Stephen Kolek RHP KC
77 matchups scored · 9 game days
9 HRs Allowed
11.7% HR Rate (Pool)
17.9% Overall HR/FB
4.36 FIP
4.18 xFIP
+0.18 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
1.0
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
17.9%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
85th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
68.1%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
4.36
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
62th pctile
4.18
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.18
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
59th pctile
11.7%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
77
Pool Matchups
9
HRs Allowed (Pool)
4
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
11.7%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 8 1 3 37.5% 3.0 100.2mph 98.3mph 31.3° 395ft Up +25.8pp
Last 15 23 3 3 13.0% 1.0 100.7mph 98.3mph 31.3° 395ft Flat +1.3pp
Last 30 50 6 7 14.0% 1.17 98.4mph 99.8mph 28.1° 389ft Up +2.3pp
Batted-Ball Damage
72 tracked BBE from 77 pool matchups
98.2
112.8
49
0
99.7
27.6°
381
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-21 Nathan Church 109.7mph · · · ·
2026-06-21 Lars Nootbaar 106.6mph · · · ·
2026-06-21 Alec Burleson 106.5mph · · · ·
2026-06-21 Iván Herrera 104.6mph 100.8mph 29° 414ft Yes
2026-06-21 Masyn Winn 100.5mph 100.5mph 25° 410ft Yes
2026-06-21 JJ Wetherholt 93.7mph 93.7mph 40° 360ft Yes
2026-06-14 Cam Smith 108.1mph · · · ·
2026-06-14 Christian Walker 107.9mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
9 days · 9 total HRs
HRs Allowed
9 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-21 Iván Herrera #154 39 Kauffman Stadium 100.8mph 29.0° 414ft
2026-06-21 JJ Wetherholt #181 35 Kauffman Stadium 93.7mph 40.0° 360ft
2026-06-21 Masyn Winn #225 22 Kauffman Stadium 100.5mph 25.0° 410ft
2026-06-03 Blake Dunn #186 34 Great American Ball Park 97.7mph 27.0° 368ft
2026-05-29 Joc Pederson #97 48 Globe Life Field 96.2mph 23.0° 339ft
2026-05-29 Brandon Nimmo #133 44 Globe Life Field 108.1mph 33.0° 435ft
2026-05-29 Nicky Lopez #231 23 Globe Life Field 101.7mph 20.0° 397ft
2026-05-12 Chase Meidroth #242 12 Rate Field 99.8mph 25.0° 359.0ft
2026-05-05 Rhys Hoskins #111 30 Kauffman Stadium 98.4mph 26.0° 343.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Fastball 212 27.7% -0.4 82.2 28.2° 1
Sinker 171 22.4% +0.1 85.9 6.9° 1
Slider 126 16.5% -0.4 84.4 16.8° 2
Changeup 95 12.4% -0.9 81.8 1.3° 0
Cutter 88 11.5% -0.2 82.1 12.3° 3
Sweeper 72 9.4% +3.6 89.1 5.2° 1
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
68.1%
68.1%
All Scored Matchups
77 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-21 Masyn Winn #225 22 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-21 Jimmy Crooks #193 32 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-21 Nathan Church #186 34 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-21 JJ Wetherholt #181 35 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-21 Lars Nootbaar #156 39 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-21 Iván Herrera #154 39 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-21 Alec Burleson #75 54 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-21 Jordan Walker #69 57 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-14 Joey Loperfido #209 26 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-14 Jake Meyers #191 31 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-14 Jeremy Peña #186 33 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-14 Brice Matthews #132 43 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-14 Cam Smith #97 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-14 Christian Walker #42 60 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-09 Ezequiel Duran #187 32 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-09 Evan Carter #178 34 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-09 Kyle Higashioka #130 42 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-09 Jake Burger #128 42 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-09 Josh Jung #126 42 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-09 Brandon Nimmo #123 43 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-09 Wyatt Langford #121 43 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-09 Corey Seager #51 56 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-09 Joc Pederson #41 58 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-03 Blake Dunn #186 34 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-03 Matt McLain #133 41 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-03 Tyler Stephenson #104 46 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-03 Eugenio Suárez #96 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-03 Will Benson #93 48 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-03 Spencer Steer #71 52 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-03 Sal Stewart #54 56 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-03 Nathaniel Lowe #5 72 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-03 JJ Bleday #1 77 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-29 Alejandro Osuna #250 12 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-29 Nicky Lopez #231 23 ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-05-29 Danny Jansen #188 33 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-29 Josh Jung #185 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-29 Evan Carter #160 38 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-29 Ezequiel Duran #151 40 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-29 Brandon Nimmo #133 44 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-29 Joc Pederson #97 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-29 Jake Burger #72 53 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-23 Cole Young #224 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-23 Josh Naylor #223 33 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-23 Colt Emerson #160 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-23 J.P. Crawford #159 42 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-23 Randy Arozarena #150 44 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-23 Dominic Canzone #133 46 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-23 Julio Rodríguez #128 47 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-23 Jhonny Pereda #110 49 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-23 Luke Raley #27 67 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-17 Victor Scott II #257 17 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-17 Thomas Saggese #226 28 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-17 Masyn Winn #220 29 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-17 Iván Herrera #190 34 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-17 Nathan Church #158 41 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-17 JJ Wetherholt #139 44 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-17 Nolan Gorman #115 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-17 Alec Burleson #106 50 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-17 Jordan Walker #15 80 🟢 A 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-12 Tristan Peters #251 7 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-12 Luisangel Acuña #247 10 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-12 Chase Meidroth #242 12 ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-05-12 Edgar Quero #228 17 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-12 Andrew Benintendi #181 26 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-12 Everson Pereira #97 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-12 Miguel Vargas #52 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-12 Colson Montgomery #43 43 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-12 Munetaka Murakami #14 53 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-05 Steven Kwan #253 8 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-05 Bo Naylor #248 9 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-05 Kyle Manzardo #242 10 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-05 Brayan Rocchio #207 16 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-05 Chase DeLauter #196 17 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-05 Rhys Hoskins #111 30 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-05 José Ramírez #64 42 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-05 Daniel Schneemann #34 55 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-05 Angel Martínez #17 67 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
Six home runs to freedom

Stephen Kolek's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

77 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.21 · build 521

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.