2026
Pricing
Sign In
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Miles Mikolas
Miles Mikolas RHP WSH
61 matchups scored · 7 game days
4 HRs Allowed
6.6% HR Rate (Pool)
23.1% Overall HR/FB
6.6 FIP
4.79 xFIP
+1.81 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot ?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards. Pool + today context
0.57
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
23.1%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
93th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
70.4%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
6.6
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
96th pctile
4.79
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+1.81
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
97th pctile
6.6%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
61
Pool Matchups
4
HRs Allowed (Pool)
6
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
6.6%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 7 1 0 0.0% 0.0 101.3mph · · · Down -6.6pp
Last 15 7 1 0 0.0% 0.0 101.3mph · · · Down -6.6pp
Last 30 25 3 0 0.0% 0.0 101.5mph · · · Down -6.6pp
Batted-Ball Damage
54 tracked BBE from 61 pool matchups
97.9
Avg Max EV
115.9
Max EV Allowed
38
Hard-Hit Proxy · 70.4%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
105.4
Avg HR EV
26.2°
Avg HR Launch
388
Avg HR Distance
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-08 Matt Chapman 112.1mph · · · ·
2026-06-08 Rafael Devers 108.8mph · · · ·
2026-06-08 Drew Gilbert 100.3mph · · · ·
2026-05-22 Dominic Smith 105.4mph · · · ·
2026-05-22 Austin Riley 103.8mph · · · ·
2026-05-22 Ronald Acuña Jr. 103.6mph · · · ·
2026-05-12 Elly De La Cruz 115.9mph · · · ·
2026-05-12 Sal Stewart 107.1mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
7 days · 4 total HRs
HRs Allowed
4 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-05-06 Matt Wallner #189 23 Nationals Park 108.9mph 22.0° 420.0ft
2026-04-30 MJ Melendez #37 48 Citi Field 97.0mph 29.0° 359.0ft
2026-03-28 Ian Happ #68 45 Wrigley Field 111.2mph 22.0° 385.0ft
2026-03-28 Miguel Amaya #78 46 Wrigley Field 104.6mph 32.0° 390.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Sinker 295 25.5% -0.3 85.1 18.4° 7
Fastball 293 25.3% -0.2 84.2 33.9° 2
Slider 234 20.2% -1.9 82.2 11.6° 2
Curveball 163 14.1% +1.5 81.4 2.5° 0
Changeup 97 8.4% +4.6 80.9 7.9° 3
Sweeper 75 6.5% +4.4 80.3 20.9° 2
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
70.4%
70.4%
All Scored Matchups
61 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-08 Luis Arráez #110 29 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-08 Drew Gilbert #97 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-08 Jung Hoo Lee #90 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-08 Matt Chapman #78 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-08 Rafael Devers #48 52 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-08 Willy Adames #30 58 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-08 Casey Schmitt #16 67 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-22 Ozzie Albies #117 41 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-22 Mauricio Dubón #91 44 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-22 Mike Yastrzemski #67 49 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-22 Ronald Acuña Jr. #54 52 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-22 Dominic Smith #40 56 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-22 Austin Riley #34 58 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-22 Michael Harris II #18 68 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-22 Matt Olson #3 77 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-22 Drake Baldwin #2 82 🟢 A 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-12 Matt McLain #133 31 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-12 TJ Friedl #125 32 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-12 Ke'Bryan Hayes #105 34 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-12 Tyler Stephenson #84 36 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-12 Eugenio Suárez #62 40 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-05-12 Spencer Steer #12 54 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-12 Elly De La Cruz #7 58 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-12 Nathaniel Lowe #3 62 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-12 Sal Stewart #2 64 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-06 Victor Caratini #224 18 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-06 Luke Keaschall #217 19 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-06 Austin Martin #202 21 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-06 Matt Wallner #189 23 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-06 Trevor Larnach #160 27 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-06 Josh Bell #159 27 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-06 Ryan Jeffers #131 32 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-06 Brooks Lee #120 33 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-06 Byron Buxton #111 34 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-30 Carson Benge #117 22 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-30 Luis Torrens #110 24 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-30 Marcus Semien #109 24 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-30 Brett Baty #108 24 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-30 Ronny Mauricio #103 26 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-30 Mark Vientos #75 31 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-30 Bo Bichette #64 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-30 MJ Melendez #37 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-04-30 Juan Soto #30 51 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-08 Victor Scott II #217 23 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-08 Masyn Winn #214 27 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-08 Nolan Arenado #187 30 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-08 Lars Nootbaar #165 35 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-04-08 Alec Burleson #135 39 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-08 Brendan Donovan #124 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-08 Ivan Herrera #82 42 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-08 Nolan Gorman #58 39 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-08 Willson Contreras #32 46 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-03-28 Nico Hoerner #221 26 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-03-28 Matt Shaw #104 41 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-28 Alex Bregman #97 42 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-28 Miguel Amaya #78 46 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-03-28 Ian Happ #68 45 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-03-28 Pete Crow-Armstrong #62 53 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-28 Dansby Swanson #52 46 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-28 Michael Busch #25 59 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-28 Moisés Ballesteros #20 42 ⚪ D · — ·
⚾
Six home runs to freedom

Miles Mikolas's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

Unlock all 150 picks + conviction tools Already have an account? Sign in
61 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 516
⚾

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.