2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs
Trevor McDonald
Trevor McDonald RHP SF
78 matchups scored · 9 game days
7 HRs Allowed
9.0% HR Rate (Pool)
24.9% Overall HR/FB
3.63 FIP
3.29 xFIP
+0.33 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
0.78
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
24.9%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
94th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
62.1%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
3.63
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
34th pctile
3.29
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.33
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
66th pctile
9.0%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
78
Pool Matchups
7
HRs Allowed (Pool)
4
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
9.0%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 7 1 0 0.0% 0.0 95.7mph · · · Down -9.0pp
Last 15 24 3 2 8.3% 0.67 95.0mph 103.2mph 30.0° 394ft Flat -0.7pp
Last 30 51 6 3 5.9% 0.5 94.8mph 103.6mph 28.3° 400ft Down -3.1pp
Batted-Ball Damage
66 tracked BBE from 78 pool matchups
95.3
114.4
41
0
105.1
28.6°
412
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-20 Kyle Stowers 105.7mph · · · ·
2026-06-20 Jakob Marsee 103.0mph · · · ·
2026-06-13 Ian Happ 103.6mph 103.6mph 29° 404ft Yes
2026-06-13 Pete Crow-Armstrong 102.7mph 102.7mph 31° 385ft Yes
2026-06-13 Alex Bregman 100.4mph · · · ·
2026-06-13 Michael Busch 100.1mph · · · ·
2026-06-07 Moisés Ballesteros 102.5mph · · · ·
2026-06-02 Jake Bauers 108.9mph 104.4mph 25° 412ft Yes
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
9 days · 7 total HRs
HRs Allowed
7 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-13 Ian Happ #70 53 Oracle Park 103.6mph 29.0° 404ft
2026-06-13 Pete Crow-Armstrong #92 49 Oracle Park 102.7mph 31.0° 385ft
2026-06-02 Jake Bauers #54 56 American Family Field 104.4mph 25.0° 412ft
2026-05-16 Brent Rooker #30 69 Sutter Health Park 109.5mph 32.0° 407.0ft
2026-05-11 Max Muncy #22 46 Dodger Stadium 104.1mph 30.0° 396.0ft
2026-05-04 Ramón Laureano #190 6 Oracle Park 106.3mph 29.0° 447.0ft
2026-05-04 Jackson Merrill #191 5 Oracle Park 105.2mph 24.0° 436.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Sinker 444 57.1% -0.2 85.8 5.8° 2
Slider 210 27.0% -1.4 83.9 2.8° 1
Changeup 110 14.1% +4.0 73.6 4.1° 2
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
62.1%
62.1%
All Scored Matchups
78 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-20 Otto Lopez #194 28 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-20 Jakob Marsee #185 30 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-20 Xavier Edwards #182 31 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-20 Joe Mack #101 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-20 Kyle Stowers #78 52 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-20 Owen Caissie #61 56 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-20 Esteury Ruiz #31 64 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-13 Nico Hoerner #216 22 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-13 Dansby Swanson #207 23 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-13 Carson Kelly #203 25 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-13 Moisés Ballesteros #196 27 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-13 Alex Bregman #192 28 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-13 Michael Busch #165 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-13 Seiya Suzuki #115 45 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-13 Pete Crow-Armstrong #92 49 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-13 Ian Happ #70 53 🟠 C 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-07 Nico Hoerner #212 25 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-07 Carson Kelly #198 28 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-07 Alex Bregman #172 32 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-07 Moisés Ballesteros #117 43 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-07 Michael Busch #113 44 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-07 Seiya Suzuki #57 55 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-07 Pete Crow-Armstrong #39 60 🔵 C+ 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-07 Ian Happ #10 72 🟡 B 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-02 Joey Ortiz #245 15 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-02 Luis Rengifo #243 15 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-02 David Hamilton #235 20 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-02 Sal Frelick #217 27 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-02 Christian Yelich #153 38 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-02 Brice Turang #134 41 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-02 Garrett Mitchell #123 43 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-02 William Contreras #117 44 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-02 Jake Bauers #54 56 🟠 C 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-27 Tommy Troy #269 8 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-05-27 Jose Fernandez #253 19 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-27 Geraldo Perdomo #232 27 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-27 Aramis Garcia #231 27 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-27 Adrian Del Castillo #206 32 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-27 Ildemaro Vargas #171 36 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-27 Ryan Waldschmidt #114 45 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-27 Ketel Marte #64 57 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-27 Corbin Carroll #44 60 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-22 Luisangel Acuña #253 14 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-22 Edgar Quero #242 19 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-22 Chase Meidroth #223 25 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-22 Tristan Peters #201 30 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-22 Andrew Benintendi #174 34 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-22 Sam Antonacci #157 36 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-22 Miguel Vargas #24 62 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-22 Colson Montgomery #22 63 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-22 Munetaka Murakami #9 72 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-16 Jeff McNeil #230 24 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-16 Jacob Wilson #138 41 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-16 Lawrence Butler #122 44 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-16 Carlos Cortes #52 60 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-16 Brent Rooker #30 69 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-16 Tyler Soderstrom #29 69 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-16 Max Muncy #25 74 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-16 Nick Kurtz #17 78 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-16 Shea Langeliers #2 90 🔥 A+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-11 Alex Freeland #63 31 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-11 Hyeseong Kim #60 32 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-11 Kyle Tucker #40 41 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-11 Will Smith #37 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-11 Freddie Freeman #32 44 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-11 Shohei Ohtani #31 44 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-11 Max Muncy #22 46 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-11 Teoscar Hernández #17 47 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-11 Andy Pages #11 50 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-04 Jake Cronenworth #198 -2 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-04 Fernando Tatis Jr. #194 4 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-04 Jackson Merrill #191 5 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-04 Ramón Laureano #190 6 ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-05-04 Xander Bogaerts #189 6 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-04 Nick Castellanos #184 8 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-04 Manny Machado #173 13 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-04 Gavin Sheets #163 16 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-04 Miguel Andujar #157 17 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
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