Slate · 2026-06-17

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2026-06-17

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 5 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#2 Esteury Ruiz vs Andrew Painter FIP 5.24 HR/FB 23.8% #8 Jasson Dominguez vs Anthony Kay FIP 5.52 HR/FB 24.4% #9 Brandon Lowe vs Aaron Civale FIP 5.56 HR/FB 20.5% #11 Juan Soto vs Nick Lodolo FIP 6.57 HR/FB 20.0% #12 Matt Olson vs Adrian Houser FIP 5.18 HR/FB 22.9%

📦 STACK Anthony Kay FIP 5.52 HR/FB 12.5% → #1 Ben Rice, #8 Jasson Dominguez

📦 STACK Gavin Williams FIP 3.9 HR/FB 22.5% → #3 Jake Bauers, #5 Jackson Chourio

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-06-26. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

91.3% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Due	BP	Weather	Hit?
1	·Ben Rice (L) ²	86	+10.0	Anthony Kay (LHP) CWS @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟢 A	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	22	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%12.6% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.6% HR/91.13 FIP4.42 IP631.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+65 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp73.5°F Wind12.0 mph S Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+65 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note74°F, wind 12 mph S (out) — modifier: +4
2	·James Wood (L) ³	81	·	Luinder Avila (RHP) KC @ WSH · Nationals Park	1:05p	🟢 A	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%14.5% Avg EV95.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3.7×	KC Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.24 FIP4.49 IP653.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+12 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.7°F Wind7 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+12 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note87°F, wind 7 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +2
3	·Kyle Schwarber (L) ³	79	·	Sandy Alcantara (RHP) MIA @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	1:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	29	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV93.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.3×	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.5% HR/90.94 FIP3.92 IP678.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+5 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp83.0°F Wind7 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+5 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note83°F, wind 7 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +2
4	·Juan Soto (L) ⁴	79	·	Nick Lodolo (LHP) NYM @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	12:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	17	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%13.2% Avg EV93.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.3×	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.42 FIP5.09 IP644.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+52 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78.0°F Wind5.0 mph WSW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+52 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note78°F, wind 5 mph WSW (cross) — modifier: +1
5	·Brandon Lowe (L) ⁵	77	-11.2	Aaron Civale (RHP) PIT @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	19	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	ATH Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.4% HR/91.46 FIP4.86 IP637.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR NoteUnknown stadium
6	·Jake Bauers (L) ³	76	+6.6	Gavin Williams (RHP) CLE @ MIL · American Family Field	7:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%12.7% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.19 FIP3.99 IP664.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-14 Weather · American Family Field cool air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp59.5°F Wind5.0 mph SW Charactercross HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind-14 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note59°F, wind 5 mph SW (cross) — modifier: -1
7	Jackson Chourio (R) ³	76	·	Gavin Williams (RHP) CLE @ MIL · American Family Field	7:40p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	10	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls43 BBE Barrel%13.6% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4.0×	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.19 FIP3.99 IP664.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-17 Weather · American Family Field cool air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp59.5°F Wind5.0 mph SW Charactercross HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind-17 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 10 HR Note59°F, wind 5 mph SW (cross) — modifier: -1	Jackson Chourio — Home Run OffGavin Williams Exit Velo100.2 mph Angle34.0° Distance366 ft StadiumAmerican Family Field
8	·Esteury Ruiz (R) ³	75	·	Andrew Painter (RHP) MIA @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	1:05p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	4	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls11 BBE Barrel%8.3% Avg EV88.8 mph Surprise BarrelYes Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	·	PHI Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.10 FIP3.70 IP648.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+50 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp83.0°F Wind7 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+50 · Green alignment Spray Sourceblend · 3 HR Note83°F, wind 7 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +2
9	·Nick Kurtz (L) ²	75	-12.7	Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) PIT @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV94.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	PIT Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.8% HR/90.94 FIP3.92 IP672.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR NoteUnknown stadium
10	·Ian Happ (S)	75	+0.6	COL Bullpen Proxy COL @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🟡 B	SHH vs ?HP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%14.6% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3.2×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.40 FIP4.85 IP649.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+10 Weather · Wrigley Field cool air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: conditions are working against carry tonight. Roofopen Temp61.4°F Wind11.0 mph SSE Characterin HR Modifier-4 Spray/Wind+10 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note61°F, wind 11 mph SSE (in) — modifier: -4
11	·Matt Olson (L) ⁴	74	+6.0	SF Bullpen Proxy SF @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🟡 B	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	20	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%14.4% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3.2×	SF Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.03 FIP4.25 IP636.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+56 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.8°F Wind3 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+56 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note87°F, wind 3 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2
12	·Matt Olson (L) ⁴	73	+5.6	Adrian Houser (RHP) SF @ ATL · Truist Park	2:00p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3.2×	SF Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.03 FIP4.25 IP636.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+56 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.8°F Wind3 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+56 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note87°F, wind 3 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2
13	Paul Goldschmidt (R) ³	73	+4.9	Anthony Kay (LHP) CWS @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟡 B	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV87.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.7×	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.6% HR/91.13 FIP4.42 IP631.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+41 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp73.5°F Wind12.0 mph S Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+41 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 9 HR Note74°F, wind 12 mph S (out) — modifier: +4	Paul Goldschmidt — Home Run OffTyler Davis Exit Velo100.0 mph Angle25.0° Distance349 ft StadiumYankee Stadium
14	·Randal Grichuk (R) ²	72	+8.0	Carlos Rodón (LHP) CWS @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟡 B	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	9	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls10 BBE Barrel%8.4% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.3×	NYY Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.7% HR/90.87 FIP3.63 IP638.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+46 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp73.5°F Wind12.0 mph S Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+46 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 7 HR Note74°F, wind 12 mph S (out) — modifier: +4
15	Dominic Canzone (L) ³	71	-3.2	Kyle Bradish (RHP) BAL @ SEA · T-Mobile Park	9:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	12	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%12.6% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.5×	BAL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.10 FIP4.25 IP651.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+24 Weather · T-Mobile Park warm air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp72.5°F Wind3 mph S Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+24 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 11 HR Note72°F, wind 3 mph S (in) — modifier: +0	Dominic Canzone — Home Run OffRyan Helsley Exit Velo101.9 mph Angle39.0° Distance374 ft StadiumT-Mobile Park
16	·Drake Baldwin ⁵	70	+4.7	SF Bullpen Proxy SF @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🟡 B	?HH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	14	— Form · — SignalUNKNOWN Batted Balls0 BBE Barrel%18.6% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8.0×	SF Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.03 FIP4.25 IP636.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+55 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.8°F Wind3 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+55 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note87°F, wind 3 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2
17	·Willson Contreras (R) ²	69	+1.4	Braydon Fisher (RHP) TOR @ BOS · Fenway Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%12.8% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.14 FIP3.94 IP645.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+31 Weather · Fenway Park warm air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76.6°F Wind8.0 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+31 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note77°F, wind 8 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +1
18	·Shea Langeliers (R) ³	69	-12.8	Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) PIT @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls46 BBE Barrel%9.2% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.5×	PIT Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.8% HR/90.94 FIP3.92 IP672.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR NoteUnknown stadium
19	Hunter Goodman (R) ⁴	69	-7.6	Javier Assad (RHP) COL @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%8.8% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.5% HR/91.49 FIP4.66 IP668.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+29 Weather · Wrigley Field cool air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: conditions are working against carry tonight. Roofopen Temp61.4°F Wind11.0 mph SSE Characterin HR Modifier-4 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note61°F, wind 11 mph SSE (in) — modifier: -4	Hunter Goodman — Home Run OffEthan Roberts Exit Velo107.7 mph Angle22.0° Distance417 ft StadiumWrigley Field
20	Colson Montgomery (L) ²	68	+6.4	Carlos Rodón (LHP) CWS @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	20	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls17 BBE Barrel%8.5% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3.5×	NYY Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.7% HR/90.87 FIP3.63 IP638.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+67 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · steady wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp73.5°F Wind12.0 mph S Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+67 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note74°F, wind 12 mph S (out) — modifier: +4	Colson Montgomery — Home Run OffPaul Blackburn Exit Velo104.9 mph Angle27.0° Distance412 ft StadiumYankee Stadium
21	·Dillon Dingler (R) ⁴	68	·	Peter Lambert (RHP) DET @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	2:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%9.6% Avg EV90.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.9% HR/91.30 FIP4.92 IP655.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-4 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · steady partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp88°F Wind11.0 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind-4 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note88°F, wind 11 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +2
22	Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)	67	-4.8	COL Bullpen Proxy COL @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls42 BBE Barrel%11.5% Avg EV91.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.3×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.40 FIP4.85 IP649.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-13 Weather · Wrigley Field cool air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: conditions are working against carry tonight. Roofopen Temp61.4°F Wind11.0 mph SSE Characterin HR Modifier-4 Spray/Wind-13 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note61°F, wind 11 mph SSE (in) — modifier: -4	Pete Crow-Armstrong — Home Run OffSean Sullivan Exit Velo99.2 mph Angle41.0° Distance364 ft StadiumWrigley Field
23	·Curtis Mead (R) ⁴	67	·	Luinder Avila (RHP) KC @ WSH · Nationals Park	1:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	14	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV88.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	KC Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.24 FIP4.49 IP653.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-12 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.7°F Wind7 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind-12 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 10 HR Note87°F, wind 7 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +2
24	·Jj Bleday (L) ⁵	65	·	Nolan McLean (RHP) NYM @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	12:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%8.5% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	·	NYM Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/90.97 FIP3.87 IP622.9 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+67 Weather · Great American Ball Park warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78.0°F Wind5.0 mph WSW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+67 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note78°F, wind 5 mph WSW (cross) — modifier: +1
25	·Tyler Soderstrom (L) ³	65	-6.2	Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) PIT @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%7.9% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.8×	PIT Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.8% HR/90.94 FIP3.92 IP672.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Sutter Health Park Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR NoteUnknown stadium
26	·Mike Trout (R) ³	65	·	Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP) LAA @ AZ · Chase Field	3:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%13.1% Avg EV91.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.4×	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.31 FIP4.57 IP654.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+6 Weather · Chase Field hot air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp107.7°F Wind7 mph WSW Charactercross HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+6 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note108°F, wind 7 mph WSW (cross) — modifier: +3
27	·Drake Baldwin ⁵	65	+3.3	Adrian Houser (RHP) SF @ ATL · Truist Park	2:00p	🔵 C+	?HH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	14	— Form · — SignalUNKNOWN Batted Balls0 BBE Barrel%13.4% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8.0×	SF Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.03 FIP4.25 IP636.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+55 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.8°F Wind3 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+55 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note87°F, wind 3 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2
28	Bryce Eldridge (L) ²	65	+5.1	Grant Holmes (RHP) SF @ ATL · Truist Park	2:00p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	6	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.3×	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.1% HR/91.01 FIP3.90 IP685.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+56 Weather · Truist Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.8°F Wind3 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+56 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 5 HR Note87°F, wind 3 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2	Bryce Eldridge — Home Run OffJR Ritchie Exit Velo100.9 mph Angle33.0° Distance406 ft StadiumTruist Park
29	·Rodolfo Duran (R) ²	64	·	Kyle Leahy (RHP) SD @ STL · Busch Stadium	2:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	3	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls14 BBE Barrel%14.9% Avg EV89.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	·	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.1% HR/91.11 FIP4.28 IP632.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-78 Weather · Busch Stadium hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp92.9°F Wind3 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-78 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourceblend · 4 HR Note93°F, wind 3 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +3
30	·Luke Raley (L) ²	64	·	Kyle Bradish (RHP) BAL @ SEA · T-Mobile Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%12.7% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3.3×	BAL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.10 FIP4.25 IP651.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+23 Weather · T-Mobile Park warm air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp72.5°F Wind3 mph S Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+23 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR Note72°F, wind 3 mph S (in) — modifier: +0

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

🔒

Today's Locks

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Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

17.3%

▼ -2.6 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 18.6% prior 15d

Results · 2026-06-17

38 HRs

28%

11 caught / 38 HRs

in top 50

#5 Jackson Chourio

34.1%

🟡

#16 Dominic Canzone

29.9%

🟡

#17 Colson Montgomery

37.8%

🟡

#18 Paul Goldschmidt

37.0%

🟡

#23 Hunter Goodman

25.1%

🔵

#25 Pete Crow-Armstrong

22.2%

🔵

#33 Owen Caissie

17.5%

🔵

#34 Bryce Eldridge

25.6%

🔵

#35 Corbin Carroll

24.4%

🔵

#40 Cody Bellinger

12.7%

🔵

#42 Zach Neto

19.6%

🔵

Missed

Kerry Carpenter Zack Gelof Ryan O'Hearn Freddie Freeman Kyle Stowers +22 more

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 20.3%

B 19.7%

C+ 16.0%

C 13.0%

D 8.5%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Slate · 2026-06-17

You saw the full board yesterday

The top 10 picks. Every morning.