2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 10 Bo Bichette 4 HRs · 11 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 12 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs 1 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 2 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 3 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 8 Curtis Mead 4 HRs · 9 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 10 Bo Bichette 4 HRs · 11 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 12 TJ Rumfield 4 HRs
Sandy Alcantara
Sandy Alcantara RHP MIA
140 matchups scored · 16 game days
14 HRs Allowed
10.0% HR Rate (Pool)
10.7% Overall HR/FB
3.95 FIP
4.28 xFIP
-0.34 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
0.88
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
10.7%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
33th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
69.0%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
3.95
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
47th pctile
4.28
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.34
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
30th pctile
10.0%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
140
Pool Matchups
14
HRs Allowed (Pool)
10
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
10.0%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 17 2 2 11.8% 1.0 96.4mph 106.3mph 22.0° 398ft Flat +1.8pp
Last 15 25 3 4 16.0% 1.33 97.0mph 105.3mph 25.5° 395ft Up +6.0pp
Last 30 51 6 8 15.7% 1.33 96.0mph 104.2mph 25.4° 394ft Up +5.7pp
Batted-Ball Damage
126 tracked BBE from 140 pool matchups
96.9
111.3
87
0
103.2
26.6°
392
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-23 Brandon Nimmo 110.5mph 105.9mph 22° 412ft Yes
2026-06-23 Joc Pederson 106.7mph 106.7mph 22° 384ft Yes
2026-06-23 Kyle Higashioka 103.8mph · · · ·
2026-06-23 Ezequiel Duran 101.6mph · · · ·
2026-06-23 Josh Jung 101.1mph · · · ·
2026-06-17 Bryson Stott 105.4mph · · · ·
2026-06-12 Endy Rodríguez 106.9mph 106.9mph 21° 393ft Yes
2026-06-12 Brandon Lowe 101.6mph 101.6mph 37° 391ft Yes
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
16 days · 14 total HRs
HRs Allowed
14 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-23 Joc Pederson #99 48 loanDepot Park 106.7mph 22.0° 384ft
2026-06-23 Brandon Nimmo #147 40 loanDepot Park 105.9mph 22.0° 412ft
2026-06-12 Brandon Lowe #73 52 PNC Park 101.6mph 37.0° 391ft
2026-06-12 Endy Rodríguez #161 38 PNC Park 106.9mph 21.0° 393ft
2026-06-01 Jacob Young #57 48 Nationals Park 99.5mph 30.0° 393ft
2026-05-26 Jesús Sánchez #135 41 Rogers Centre 108.7mph 24.0° 394.0ft
2026-05-26 Ernie Clement #174 37 Rogers Centre 98.1mph 28.0° 373.0ft
2026-05-26 Yohendrick Piñango #216 28 Rogers Centre 106.2mph 19.0° 408.0ft
2026-05-21 Michael Harris II #19 55 loanDepot Park 103.4mph 24.0° 404.0ft
2026-05-21 Mike Yastrzemski #65 34 loanDepot Park 102.4mph 23.0° 398.0ft
2026-04-24 Jung Hoo Lee #249 9 Oracle Park 98.4mph 33.0° 364.0ft
2026-04-18 Brice Turang #102 50 loanDepot Park 106.2mph 26.0° 402.0ft
2026-04-12 Kerry Carpenter #108 41 Comerica Park 101.0mph 27.0° 363.0ft
2026-04-12 Dillon Dingler #146 33 Comerica Park 99.4mph 36.0° 404.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Sinker 421 24.3% -1.5 84.0 12.3° 2
Changeup 386 22.3% +1.1 83.3 0.4° 4
Fastball 331 19.1% +0.7 86.2 27.1° 2
Cutter 234 13.5% -2.3 80.6 21.2° 1
Slider 153 8.8% -0.4 82.3 20.4° 1
Sweeper 140 8.1% -0.0 77.6 30.4° 1
Curveball 67 3.9% -0.3 80.8 12.3° 1
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
69.0%
69.0%
All Scored Matchups
140 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-23 Alejandro Osuna #234 10 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-23 Nicky Lopez #230 15 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-23 Josh Jung #172 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-23 Brandon Nimmo #147 40 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-23 Ezequiel Duran #145 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-23 Jarred Kelenic #137 41 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-23 Kyle Higashioka #130 42 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-23 Joc Pederson #99 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-23 Wyatt Langford #85 50 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-17 Garrett Stubbs #231 15 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-06-17 Justin Crawford #213 25 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-17 Trea Turner #187 32 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-17 Bryson Stott #129 44 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-17 Alec Bohm #83 52 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-17 Brandon Marsh #43 60 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-17 Bryce Harper #31 65 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-17 Kyle Schwarber #4 76 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 Jared Triolo #235 11 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 Jake Mangum #220 23 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Nick Gonzales #202 29 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Endy Rodríguez #161 38 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-12 Bryan Reynolds #128 43 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Ryan O'Hearn #112 44 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 Brandon Lowe #73 52 🟠 C 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-12 Spencer Horwitz #66 55 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-07 Taylor Walls #231 17 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-07 Richie Palacios #225 20 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-07 Hunter Feduccia #204 27 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-07 Ryan Vilade #149 38 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-07 Cedric Mullins #128 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-07 Yandy Díaz #53 56 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-07 Junior Caminero #51 57 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-07 Jonathan Aranda #31 63 🔵 C+ 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-01 Nasim Nuñez #157 14 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-01 Daylen Lile #76 43 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-01 Luis García Jr. #68 46 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-01 Jacob Young #57 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-01 José Tena #56 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-01 Keibert Ruiz #25 59 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-01 CJ Abrams #20 61 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-01 Curtis Mead #9 67 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-01 James Wood #5 75 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-26 Lenyn Sosa #229 24 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-26 Yohendrick Piñango #216 28 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-26 Andrés Giménez #214 28 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-26 Brandon Valenzuela #201 30 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-26 Ernie Clement #174 37 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-26 Daulton Varsho #138 41 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-26 Jesús Sánchez #135 41 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-26 Kazuma Okamoto #113 44 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-26 George Springer #93 46 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-21 Mike Yastrzemski #65 34 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-21 Mauricio Dubón #59 35 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-21 Ozzie Albies #58 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-21 Ronald Acuña Jr. #38 43 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-21 Dominic Smith #37 44 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-21 Austin Riley #32 46 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-21 Michael Harris II #19 55 🟠 C 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-21 Matt Olson #6 67 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-21 Drake Baldwin #4 72 🟡 B 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-16 Hunter Feduccia #251 14 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-16 Taylor Walls #247 17 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-16 Cedric Mullins #246 17 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-16 Richie Palacios #240 19 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-16 Chandler Simpson #239 19 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-16 Jonny DeLuca #205 30 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-16 Yandy Díaz #129 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-16 Jonathan Aranda #78 52 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-16 Junior Caminero #70 54 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-10 Jorbit Vivas #223 13 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-10 Nasim Nuñez #200 17 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-10 Jacob Young #152 23 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-10 Daylen Lile #151 23 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-10 Drew Millas #116 29 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-10 Brady House #115 29 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-10 Luis García Jr. #108 31 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-10 CJ Abrams #73 36 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-10 James Wood #52 42 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-05 Taylor Ward #251 8 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-05 Leody Taveras #206 16 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-05 Blaze Alexander #178 20 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-05 Dylan Beavers #152 24 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-05 Jeremiah Jackson #151 24 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-05 Coby Mayo #72 39 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-05 Gunnar Henderson #61 42 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-05 Pete Alonso #59 43 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-05 Samuel Basallo #48 47 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-29 Hyeseong Kim #76 39 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-29 Will Smith #67 41 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-29 Andy Pages #50 43 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-29 Alex Freeland #45 44 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-29 Max Muncy #44 44 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-29 Teoscar Hernández #34 46 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-29 Freddie Freeman #28 47 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-29 Kyle Tucker #19 49 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-29 Shohei Ohtani #9 53 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-24 Eric Haase #252 -2 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-24 Luis Arraez #251 6 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-24 Jung Hoo Lee #249 9 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-04-24 Drew Gilbert #246 12 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-24 Matt Chapman #245 12 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-24 Rafael Devers #235 21 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-24 Willy Adames #210 30 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-24 Casey Schmitt #198 33 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-24 Heliot Ramos #171 38 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-18 David Hamilton #261 12 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-18 Joey Ortiz #258 13 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-18 Sal Frelick #255 14 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-18 Luis Rengifo #206 29 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-18 Christian Yelich #201 31 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-18 William Contreras #188 33 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-18 Brice Turang #102 50 🟠 C ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-04-18 Garrett Mitchell #88 54 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-18 Jake Bauers #77 56 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-12 Gleyber Torres #158 26 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-12 Javier Báez #152 20 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-12 Dillon Dingler #146 33 ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-04-12 Colt Keith #145 29 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-12 Zach McKinstry #144 30 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-12 Spencer Torkelson #125 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-12 Riley Greene #115 38 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-12 Kerry Carpenter #108 41 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-04-07 Santiago Espinal #242 17 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-07 TJ Friedl #175 30 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-07 Gavin Lux #174 30 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-04-07 Matt McLain #163 35 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-07 Spencer Steer #102 41 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-07 Austin Hays #78 45 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-07 Noelvi Marte #44 44 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-07 Elly De La Cruz #23 45 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-07 Tyler Stephenson #11 50 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-27 Tyler Freeman #105 27 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-27 Ryan Ritter #102 28 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-03-27 Ezequiel Tovar #46 42 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-03-27 Kyle Farmer #38 39 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-03-27 Brenton Doyle #35 43 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-27 Jordan Beck #25 44 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-27 Michael Toglia #11 45 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-03-27 Mickey Moniak #5 57 🟠 C · — ·
2026-03-27 Hunter Goodman #4 56 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
Six home runs to freedom

Sandy Alcantara's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

140 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.21 · build 521

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.