Casey Mize
RHP
DET
5
HRs Allowed
5.3%
HR Rate (Pool)
8.9%
Overall HR/FB
2.84
FIP
3.71
xFIP
-0.87
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
0.45
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
8.9%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
16th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
67.5%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
2.84
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
13th pctile
3.71
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.87
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
8th pctile
5.3%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
95
Pool Matchups
5
HRs Allowed (Pool)
3
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
5.3%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 6.7% | 0.5 | 100.0mph | 101.5mph | 21.0° | 360ft | Flat +1.4pp |
| Last 15 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 4.3% | 0.33 | 100.0mph | 101.5mph | 21.0° | 360ft | Flat -1.0pp |
| Last 30 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 3.1% | 0.25 | 96.9mph | 101.5mph | 21.0° | 360ft | Down -2.2pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
97.3
Avg Max EV
110.5
Max EV Allowed
54
Hard-Hit Proxy · 67.5%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
101.2
Avg HR EV
24.4°
Avg HR Launch
372
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Jasson Domínguez | 105.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Cody Bellinger | 104.2mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-23 | José Caballero | 103.7mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Cam Smith | 110.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Christian Walker | 107.9mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Joey Loperfido | 106.2mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Jeremy Peña | 101.5mph | 101.5mph | 21° | 360ft | Yes |
| 2026-05-27 | Jo Adell | 102.1mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Jeremy Peña | #193 | 31 | Minute Maid Park | 101.5mph | 21.0° | 360ft |
| 2026-05-21 | Patrick Bailey | #112 | 10 | Comerica Park | 104.0mph | 27.0° | 407.0ft |
| 2026-05-16 | Yohendrick Piñango | #261 | 5 | Comerica Park | 100.1mph | 19.0° | 348.0ft |
| 2026-04-28 | Ozzie Albies | #98 | 45 | Truist Park | 98.5mph | 29.0° | 378.0ft |
| 2026-04-06 | Luke Keaschall | #157 | 30 | Target Field | 101.8mph | 26.0° | 367.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 311 | 34.6% | -0.6 | 84.6 | 37.9° | 1 |
| Splitter | 228 | 25.3% | +0.4 | 79.3 | -6.6° | 0 |
| Slider | 224 | 24.9% | -0.5 | 81.3 | 25.7° | 3 |
| Sinker | 98 | 10.9% | -1.0 | 85.2 | 19.8° | 0 |
| Slurve | 39 | 4.3% | +1.3 | 78.8 | 3.9° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
67.5%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Anthony Volpe | #211 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Austin Wells | #205 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-23 | José Caballero | #179 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Jasson Domínguez | #121 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Cody Bellinger | #116 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Spencer Jones | #77 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Paul Goldschmidt | #36 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Ben Rice | #18 | 68 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Christian Vázquez | #225 | 19 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Joey Loperfido | #221 | 21 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Jake Meyers | #200 | 29 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Jeremy Peña | #193 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-06-17 | Cam Smith | #137 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Christian Walker | #80 | 52 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Isaac Paredes | #63 | 56 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Steven Kwan | #235 | 8 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Brayan Rocchio | #205 | 27 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Daniel Schneemann | #190 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Travis Bazzana | #183 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Chase Delauter | #176 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Kyle Manzardo | #149 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Rhys Hoskins | #134 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Angel Martínez | #104 | 47 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Donovan Walton | #270 | -1 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Logan O'Hoppe | #262 | 14 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Wade Meckler | #238 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Jo Adell | #191 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Vaughn Grissom | #190 | 35 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Oswald Peraza | #185 | 35 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Jorge Soler | #138 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Mike Trout | #91 | 48 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Zach Neto | #77 | 52 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Steven Kwan | #117 | 1 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Patrick Bailey | #112 | 10 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-21 | Travis Bazzana | #111 | 13 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Brayan Rocchio | #110 | 14 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Daniel Schneemann | #97 | 25 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-21 | José Ramírez | #88 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Rhys Hoskins | #71 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Chase DeLauter | #64 | 34 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Angel Martínez | #50 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-16 | Yohendrick Piñango | #261 | 5 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-16 | Tyler Heineman | #259 | 6 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-16 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | #232 | 22 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-16 | Andrés Giménez | #222 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-16 | Jesús Sánchez | #213 | 28 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-16 | George Springer | #201 | 30 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-16 | Daulton Varsho | #197 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-16 | Lenyn Sosa | #165 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-16 | Kazuma Okamoto | #42 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Mike Yastrzemski | #130 | 40 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Mauricio Dubón | #113 | 43 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Ozzie Albies | #98 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-28 | Dominic Smith | #59 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Austin Riley | #58 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | #44 | 60 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Drake Baldwin | #17 | 72 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Michael Harris II | #8 | 80 | 🟢 A | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Matt Olson | #7 | 80 | 🟢 A | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-22 | David Hamilton | #255 | 10 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-22 | Brandon Lockridge | #247 | 14 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-22 | Sal Frelick | #246 | 14 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-22 | Luis Rengifo | #186 | 27 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-22 | William Contreras | #128 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-22 | Brice Turang | #62 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-22 | Garrett Mitchell | #59 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-22 | Jake Bauers | #54 | 54 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-22 | Gary Sánchez | #38 | 58 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Caleb Durbin | #259 | 4 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Connor Wong | #237 | 18 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Trevor Story | #236 | 18 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Ceddanne Rafaela | #227 | 21 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Marcelo Mayer | #196 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Jarren Duran | #178 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Roman Anthony | #177 | 32 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Wilyer Abreu | #126 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Willson Contreras | #102 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Xavier Edwards | #228 | 17 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Dane Myers | #198 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Javier Sanoja | #195 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Otto Lopez | #185 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Eric Wagaman | #181 | 31 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Connor Norby | #175 | 34 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Liam Hicks | #133 | 25 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Agustin Ramirez | #103 | 41 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Kyle Stowers | #37 | 55 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Ryan Jeffers | #171 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Christian Vazquez | #160 | 22 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Luke Keaschall | #157 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-06 | Edouard Julien | #151 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Brooks Lee | #129 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Trevor Larnach | #78 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Royce Lewis | #74 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Byron Buxton | #34 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Matt Wallner | #9 | 52 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |