2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs
Colin Rea
Colin Rea RHP CHC
114 matchups scored · 13 game days
16 HRs Allowed
14.0% HR Rate (Pool)
14.0% Overall HR/FB
4.15 FIP
4.02 xFIP
+0.13 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
1.23
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
14.0%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
65th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
73.8%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
4.15
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
55th pctile
4.02
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.13
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
57th pctile
14.0%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
114
Pool Matchups
16
HRs Allowed (Pool)
12
Top-15 Matchups
1
HRs to Top-15
14.0%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 16 2 4 25.0% 2.0 97.8mph 107.8mph 29.8° 400ft Up +11.0pp
Last 15 16 2 4 25.0% 2.0 97.8mph 107.8mph 29.8° 400ft Up +11.0pp
Last 30 42 5 7 16.7% 1.4 100.0mph 107.1mph 27.7° 407ft Up +2.7pp
Batted-Ball Damage
103 tracked BBE from 114 pool matchups
98.6
112.5
76
0
105.3
27.1°
394
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-26 William Contreras 109.3mph 109.3mph 23° 449ft Yes
2026-06-26 Garrett Mitchell 109.1mph 109.1mph 35° 407ft Yes
2026-06-26 Jackson Chourio 104.0mph · · · ·
2026-06-20 Kazuma Okamoto 107.3mph 107.3mph 37° 377ft Yes
2026-06-20 Daulton Varsho 105.6mph 105.6mph 24° 368ft Yes
2026-06-20 Davis Schneider 101.1mph · · · ·
2026-06-09 Edouard Julien 106.6mph · · · ·
2026-06-09 Hunter Goodman 106.0mph 106.0mph 24° 413ft Yes
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
13 days · 16 total HRs
HRs Allowed
16 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-26 Garrett Mitchell #43 59 American Family Field 109.1mph 35.0° 407ft
2026-06-26 William Contreras #73 54 American Family Field 109.3mph 23.0° 449ft
2026-06-20 Kazuma Okamoto #41 60 Wrigley Field 107.3mph 37.0° 377ft
2026-06-20 Daulton Varsho #131 44 Wrigley Field 105.6mph 24.0° 368ft
2026-06-09 Hunter Goodman #2 86 Coors Field 106.0mph 24.0° 413ft
2026-06-09 Ezequiel Tovar #71 52 Coors Field 106.0mph 24.0° 433ft
2026-05-28 Bryan Reynolds #71 36 PNC Park 106.6mph 27.0° 400.0ft
2026-05-23 Christian Walker #52 61 Wrigley Field 105.6mph 18.0° 369.0ft
2026-05-17 Tristan Peters #233 25 Rate Field 101.8mph 23.0° 359.0ft
2026-05-17 Edgar Quero #259 16 Rate Field 103.8mph 24.0° 407.0ft
2026-05-12 Austin Riley #119 33 Truist Park 107.0mph 35.0° 409.0ft
2026-05-12 Mike Yastrzemski #221 19 Truist Park 102.8mph 35.0° 380.0ft
2026-05-06 Spencer Steer #60 41 Wrigley Field 104.1mph 27.0° 411.0ft
2026-05-06 Matt McLain #132 32 Wrigley Field 99.1mph 29.0° 371.0ft
2026-05-01 Geraldo Perdomo #43 39 Wrigley Field 100.8mph 26.0° 366.0ft
2026-04-25 Max Muncy #23 73 Dodger Stadium 110.1mph 22.0° 387.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Fastball 573 41.2% +1.0 83.9 25.7° 4
Changeup 243 17.5% -1.6 81.1 1.2° 0
Slider 151 10.9% -1.0 84.8 15.7° 4
Sinker 140 10.1% +0.2 83.8 17.3° 3
Sweeper 116 8.3% -3.1 81.2 23.8° 0
Cutter 92 6.6% +1.9 85.4 17.2° 0
Curveball 75 5.4% +5.8 81.9 -2.7° 1
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
73.8%
73.8%
All Scored Matchups
114 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-26 David Hamilton #153 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-26 Christian Yelich #105 48 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-26 Andrew Vaughn #91 50 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-26 William Contreras #73 54 🟠 C 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-26 Brice Turang #44 59 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-26 Garrett Mitchell #43 59 🟠 C 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-26 Jackson Chourio #6 74 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-26 Jake Bauers #3 79 🟡 B 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-20 Myles Straw #193 28 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-20 Nathan Lukes #188 29 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-20 Daulton Varsho #131 44 ⚪ D · — 💥
2026-06-20 Andrés Giménez #90 50 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-20 George Springer #45 60 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-20 Brandon Valenzuela #43 60 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-20 Kazuma Okamoto #41 60 🔵 C+ ❄ COLD 💥
2026-06-20 Davis Schneider #29 65 🔵 C+ 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-09 Willi Castro #148 39 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-09 Edouard Julien #142 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-09 TJ Rumfield #116 45 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-09 Troy Johnston #102 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-09 Ezequiel Tovar #71 52 🟠 C 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-09 Jake McCarthy #53 56 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-09 Kyle Karros #35 59 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-09 Hunter Goodman #2 86 🟢 A 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-03 Lawrence Butler #212 28 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-03 Jeff McNeil #195 34 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-03 Alika Williams #168 37 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-03 Zack Gelof #124 42 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-03 Carlos Cortes #112 45 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-03 Brent Rooker #82 50 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-03 Tyler Soderstrom #64 54 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-03 Nick Kurtz #22 65 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-03 Shea Langeliers #13 69 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-28 Nick Gonzales #105 15 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-28 Konnor Griffin #73 35 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-28 Bryan Reynolds #71 36 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-28 Marcell Ozuna #59 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-28 Ryan O'Hearn #37 45 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-28 Henry Davis #30 49 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-28 Spencer Horwitz #23 53 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-28 Oneil Cruz #20 54 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-28 Brandon Lowe #8 68 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-23 César Salazar #286 11 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-23 Jeremy Peña #269 22 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-23 Brice Matthews #202 37 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-23 Isaac Paredes #176 40 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-23 Cam Smith #167 41 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-23 Braden Shewmake #148 44 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-23 Zach Cole #58 60 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-23 Christian Walker #52 61 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-23 Yordan Alvarez #20 71 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-17 Edgar Quero #259 16 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-17 Tristan Peters #233 25 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-17 Chase Meidroth #197 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-17 Sam Antonacci #128 46 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-17 Andrew Benintendi #105 50 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-17 Derek Hill #66 58 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-17 Miguel Vargas #23 75 🟡 B 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-17 Colson Montgomery #10 82 🟢 A 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-17 Munetaka Murakami #4 91 🔥 A+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-12 Mike Yastrzemski #221 19 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-12 Mauricio Dubón #169 28 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-12 Ronald Acuña Jr. #156 29 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-12 Austin Riley #119 33 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-12 Michael Harris II #63 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-12 Drake Baldwin #56 41 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-12 Dominic Smith #37 44 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-12 Ozzie Albies #28 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-12 Matt Olson #5 59 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-06 Eugenio Suárez #133 32 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-06 Matt McLain #132 32 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-06 Tyler Stephenson #121 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-06 TJ Friedl #100 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-06 Ke'Bryan Hayes #82 38 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-06 Spencer Steer #60 41 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-06 Sal Stewart #39 45 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-06 Elly De La Cruz #31 47 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-06 Nathaniel Lowe #11 52 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-01 Jose Fernandez #101 31 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-01 Jorge Barrosa #87 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-01 Alek Thomas #86 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-01 Adrian Del Castillo #55 37 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-01 Ketel Marte #49 38 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-01 Geraldo Perdomo #43 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-01 Nolan Arenado #29 41 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-01 Corbin Carroll #28 41 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-01 Ildemaro Vargas #24 44 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-25 Alex Freeland #119 50 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-25 Hyeseong Kim #105 52 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-25 Andy Pages #83 57 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-25 Kyle Tucker #79 58 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-25 Will Smith #66 61 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-25 Teoscar Hernández #34 68 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-25 Freddie Freeman #24 72 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-25 Max Muncy #23 73 🟡 B ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-04-25 Shohei Ohtani #12 80 🟢 A ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-20 J.T. Realmuto #139 27 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-20 Alec Bohm #134 29 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-20 Bryson Stott #124 32 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-20 Trea Turner #123 32 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-20 Justin Crawford #91 40 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-20 Brandon Marsh #88 41 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-20 Adolis García #55 49 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-20 Bryce Harper #27 62 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-20 Kyle Schwarber #6 74 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-08 Chandler Simpson #243 11 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-08 Jake Mangum #227 21 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-08 Taylor Walls #204 25 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-08 Josh Lowe #130 34 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-08 Christopher Morel #79 44 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-04-08 Yandy Diaz #73 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-08 Jonathan Aranda #44 43 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-08 Junior Caminero #18 55 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-08 Brandon Lowe #9 50 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
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