Spencer Strider
RHP
ATL
12
HRs Allowed
17.1%
HR Rate (Pool)
19.0%
Overall HR/FB
4.35
FIP
3.84
xFIP
+0.51
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
1.5
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
19.0%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
87th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
70.3%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
4.35
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
62th pctile
3.84
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.51
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
74th pctile
17.1%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
70
Pool Matchups
12
HRs Allowed (Pool)
7
Top-15 Matchups
1
HRs to Top-15
17.1%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 12.5% | 1.0 | 99.1mph | 102.8mph | 27.5° | 362ft | Down -4.6pp |
| Last 15 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 12.0% | 1.0 | 98.9mph | 102.8mph | 26.7° | 370ft | Down -5.1pp |
| Last 30 | 52 | 6 | 9 | 17.3% | 1.5 | 97.8mph | 102.8mph | 31.8° | 383ft | Flat +0.2pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
98.0
Avg Max EV
111.7
Max EV Allowed
45
Hard-Hit Proxy · 70.3%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
103.4
Avg HR EV
30.5°
Avg HR Launch
392
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Juan Soto | 109.1mph | 109.1mph | 24° | 382ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-12 | Jared Young | 104.4mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Bo Bichette | 103.5mph | 96.6mph | 31° | 341ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-12 | MJ Melendez | 102.7mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Carson Benge | 100.6mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Bryan Reynolds | 108.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Jared Triolo | 100.2mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Elly De La Cruz | 111.5mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Juan Soto | #32 | 63 | Citi Field | 109.1mph | 24.0° | 382ft |
| 2026-06-12 | Bo Bichette | #167 | 37 | Citi Field | 96.6mph | 31.0° | 341ft |
| 2026-05-31 | Eugenio Suárez | #106 | 49 | Great American Ball Park | 102.8mph | 25.0° | 387ft |
| 2026-05-26 | Jarren Duran | #77 | 49 | Fenway Park | 106.9mph | 27.0° | 412.0ft |
| 2026-05-26 | Ceddanne Rafaela | #131 | 42 | Fenway Park | 101.0mph | 43.0° | 368.0ft |
| 2026-05-26 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | #244 | 20 | Fenway Park | 98.3mph | 30.0° | 393.0ft |
| 2026-05-21 | Owen Caissie | #24 | 51 | loanDepot Park | 105.6mph | 39.0° | 403.0ft |
| 2026-05-21 | Kyle Stowers | #53 | 36 | loanDepot Park | 102.7mph | 33.0° | 382.0ft |
| 2026-05-15 | Marcelo Mayer | #198 | 31 | Truist Park | 101.9mph | 34.0° | 378.0ft |
| 2026-05-09 | Andy Pages | #21 | 50 | Dodger Stadium | 106.7mph | 22.0° | 397.0ft |
| 2026-05-03 | Mickey Moniak | #7 | 50 | Coors Field | 105.0mph | 31.0° | 438.0ft |
| 2026-05-03 | TJ Rumfield | #54 | 37 | Coors Field | 103.9mph | 27.0° | 423.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 329 | 47.6% | +1.2 | 84.9 | 32.5° | 5 |
| Slider | 191 | 27.6% | +1.4 | 81.6 | 15.0° | 3 |
| Curveball | 100 | 14.5% | +0.1 | 78.8 | 19.6° | 1 |
| Changeup | 71 | 10.3% | -1.9 | 83.0 | 20.2° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
70.3%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Brett Baty | #183 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Bo Bichette | #167 | 37 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-12 | Luis Torrens | #130 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Carson Benge | #86 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Marcus Semien | #72 | 53 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-12 | MJ Melendez | #56 | 57 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Juan Soto | #32 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-12 | Jared Young | #30 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Jared Triolo | #219 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Nick Gonzales | #159 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Bryan Reynolds | #77 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Endy Rodríguez | #60 | 55 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Ryan O'Hearn | #58 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Spencer Horwitz | #53 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Brandon Lowe | #13 | 70 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Oneil Cruz | #11 | 70 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-31 | P.J. Higgins | #196 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Blake Dunn | #163 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Eugenio Suárez | #106 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-31 | Spencer Steer | #85 | 52 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Will Benson | #84 | 53 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Sal Stewart | #36 | 66 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Elly De La Cruz | #13 | 73 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-31 | JJ Bleday | #5 | 82 | 🟢 A | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Nathaniel Lowe | #2 | 86 | 🟢 A | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | #244 | 20 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-26 | Nick Sogard | #239 | 21 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Mickey Gasper | #234 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Marcelo Mayer | #200 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Ceddanne Rafaela | #131 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-26 | Wilyer Abreu | #117 | 44 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Masataka Yoshida | #100 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Jarren Duran | #77 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-26 | Willson Contreras | #54 | 57 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Javier Sanoja | #95 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Agustín Ramírez | #82 | 30 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Connor Norby | #76 | 31 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Jakob Marsee | #70 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Otto Lopez | #60 | 35 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Kyle Stowers | #53 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-21 | Xavier Edwards | #52 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Liam Hicks | #40 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Owen Caissie | #24 | 51 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | 💥 |
| 2026-05-15 | Caleb Durbin | #244 | 17 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Marcelo Mayer | #198 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-15 | Andruw Monasterio | #186 | 34 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Carlos Narváez | #171 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Ceddanne Rafaela | #132 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Jarren Duran | #125 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Wilyer Abreu | #81 | 54 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Mickey Gasper | #67 | 58 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Willson Contreras | #44 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Alex Freeland | #59 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Hyeseong Kim | #57 | 39 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Will Smith | #35 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Kyle Tucker | #33 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Freddie Freeman | #28 | 48 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Max Muncy | #22 | 49 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Andy Pages | #21 | 50 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-09 | Teoscar Hernández | #18 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Shohei Ohtani | #17 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Ezequiel Tovar | #123 | 28 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Troy Johnston | #72 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Brenton Doyle | #65 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Kyle Karros | #55 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-03 | TJ Rumfield | #54 | 37 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-03 | Willi Castro | #42 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Edouard Julien | #41 | 39 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Mickey Moniak | #7 | 50 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hunter Goodman | #1 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |