2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs
Walker Buehler
Walker Buehler RHP SD
139 matchups scored · 16 game days
11 HRs Allowed
7.9% HR Rate (Pool)
20.7% Overall HR/FB
3.85 FIP
3.77 xFIP
+0.08 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
0.69
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
20.7%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
90th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
71.2%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
3.85
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
43th pctile
3.77
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.08
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
54th pctile
7.9%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
139
Pool Matchups
11
HRs Allowed (Pool)
7
Top-15 Matchups
1
HRs to Top-15
7.9%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 16 2 2 12.5% 1.0 98.8mph 102.9mph 27.5° 384ft Up +4.6pp
Last 15 25 3 3 12.0% 1.0 98.3mph 101.9mph 31.3° 378ft Up +4.1pp
Last 30 41 5 5 12.2% 1.0 99.7mph 102.3mph 30.6° 389ft Up +4.3pp
Batted-Ball Damage
118 tracked BBE from 139 pool matchups
98.3
111.9
84
0
103.6
30.4°
396
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-26 Freddie Freeman 103.9mph · · · ·
2026-06-26 Mookie Betts 101.7mph 101.7mph 23° 360ft Yes
2026-06-20 Wyatt Langford 108.0mph · · · ·
2026-06-20 Ezequiel Duran 107.2mph · · · ·
2026-06-20 Brandon Nimmo 105.0mph · · · ·
2026-06-20 Josh Jung 104.3mph · · · ·
2026-06-20 Jake Burger 104.1mph 104.1mph 32° 408ft Yes
2026-06-20 Kyle Higashioka 103.9mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
16 days · 11 total HRs
HRs Allowed
11 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-26 Mookie Betts #115 46 Petco Park 101.7mph 23.0° 360ft
2026-06-20 Jake Burger #113 46 Globe Life Field 104.1mph 32.0° 408ft
2026-06-14 Jeremiah Jackson #84 50 Camden Yards 99.9mph 39.0° 365ft
2026-06-03 Kyle Schwarber #8 71 Citizens Bank Park 101.5mph 32.0° 391ft
2026-06-03 J.T. Realmuto #193 34 Citizens Bank Park 104.4mph 27.0° 422ft
2026-05-27 Trea Turner #122 45 Petco Park 103.5mph 38.0° 382.0ft
2026-05-16 J.P. Crawford #174 34 T-Mobile Park 98.1mph 27.0° 378.0ft
2026-05-10 Jordan Walker #124 29 Petco Park 108.3mph 31.0° 425.0ft
2026-05-05 Casey Schmitt #56 45 Oracle Park 106.1mph 36.0° 386.0ft
2026-04-28 Pete Crow-Armstrong #210 20 Petco Park 106.3mph 26.0° 410.0ft
2026-04-22 Hunter Goodman #19 67 Coors Field 105.7mph 23.0° 427.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Cutter 296 23.3% -1.4 82.6 20.0° 0
Fastball 259 20.4% -0.4 86.6 23.8° 2
Sinker 216 17.0% -1.6 85.9 15.0° 0
Knuckle Curve 152 11.9% +3.8 85.9 1.5° 3
Slider 135 10.6% -3.5 82.1 20.3° 0
Changeup 113 8.9% +5.6 87.1 5.2° 2
Sweeper 101 7.9% +0.2 75.7 28.7° 2
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
71.2%
71.2%
All Scored Matchups
139 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-26 Alex Freeland #213 29 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-26 Kyle Tucker #197 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-26 Andy Pages #122 45 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-26 Mookie Betts #115 46 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-26 Freddie Freeman #77 52 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-26 Max Muncy #28 62 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-26 Shohei Ohtani #20 66 🔵 C+ 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-20 Nicky Lopez #206 22 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-20 Ezequiel Duran #159 37 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-20 Kyle Higashioka #144 40 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-20 Josh Jung #140 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-20 Wyatt Langford #129 44 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-20 Brandon Nimmo #120 46 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-20 Jarred Kelenic #118 46 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-06-20 Jake Burger #113 46 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-20 Joc Pederson #76 52 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-14 Leody Taveras #189 32 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-14 Taylor Ward #140 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-14 Jeremiah Jackson #84 50 🟠 C 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-14 Blaze Alexander #83 51 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-14 Gunnar Henderson #64 56 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-14 Samuel Basallo #41 61 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-14 Adley Rutschman #36 63 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-14 Colton Cowser #18 69 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-14 Pete Alonso #12 72 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-08 Eugenio Suárez #87 40 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-08 Tyler Stephenson #71 45 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-08 Matt Mclain #58 49 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-08 Sal Stewart #57 49 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-08 Spencer Steer #52 51 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-08 Nathaniel Lowe #28 60 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-08 Jj Bleday #11 69 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-03 Justin Crawford #221 27 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-03 J.T. Realmuto #193 34 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-03 Adolis García #181 35 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-03 Brandon Marsh #114 45 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-03 Bryson Stott #113 45 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-03 Alec Bohm #90 49 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-03 Trea Turner #88 49 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-03 Bryce Harper #17 68 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-03 Kyle Schwarber #8 71 🟡 B ❄ COLD 💥
2026-05-27 Adolis García #223 28 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-27 J.T. Realmuto #205 33 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-27 Justin Crawford #153 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-27 Trea Turner #122 45 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-27 Edmundo Sosa #121 45 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-27 Bryson Stott #117 45 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-27 Alec Bohm #113 46 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-27 Bryce Harper #33 67 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-27 Kyle Schwarber #6 81 🟢 A 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-22 Jacob Wilson #241 19 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-22 Lawrence Butler #230 23 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-22 Jeff McNeil #229 23 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-22 Tyler Soderstrom #146 37 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-22 Carlos Cortes #130 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-22 Brent Rooker #61 51 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-22 Nick Kurtz #45 55 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-22 Max Muncy #42 56 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-22 Shea Langeliers #35 58 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-16 Mitch Garver #212 29 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-16 Cole Young #207 30 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-16 Randy Arozarena #187 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-16 J.P. Crawford #174 34 ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-05-16 Josh Naylor #163 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-16 Brendan Donovan #145 40 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-16 Julio Rodríguez #114 46 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-16 Dominic Canzone #72 54 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-16 Luke Raley #7 86 🟢 A 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-10 Masyn Winn #226 13 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-10 Victor Scott II #208 16 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-10 Pedro Pagés #199 18 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-10 Ivan Herrera #198 18 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-10 Nolan Gorman #189 20 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-10 Alec Burleson #176 21 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-10 Nathan Church #161 23 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-10 JJ Wetherholt #145 25 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-10 Jordan Walker #124 29 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-05 Rafael Devers #258 6 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-05 Luis Arraez #234 12 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-05 Matt Chapman #233 12 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-05 Patrick Bailey #204 17 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-05 Willy Adames #203 17 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-05 Harrison Bader #192 18 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-05 Heliot Ramos #176 21 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-05 Jung Hoo Lee #163 23 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-05 Casey Schmitt #56 45 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-04-28 Pete Crow-Armstrong #210 20 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-04-28 Alex Bregman #180 28 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-28 Matt Shaw #175 29 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-28 Michael Busch #174 29 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-28 Nico Hoerner #164 32 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-28 Carson Kelly #148 37 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-28 Seiya Suzuki #125 41 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-28 Dansby Swanson #117 43 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-28 Ian Happ #95 46 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-22 Troy Johnston #88 46 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-22 Kyle Karros #87 46 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-22 TJ Rumfield #86 46 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-22 Willi Castro #77 47 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-22 Brenton Doyle #76 47 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-22 Edouard Julien #67 50 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-22 Ezequiel Tovar #55 54 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-22 Hunter Goodman #19 67 🔵 C+ 🔥 HOT 💥
2026-04-22 Mickey Moniak #7 73 🟡 B 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-16 J.P. Crawford #135 24 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-16 Josh Naylor #134 24 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-16 Brendan Donovan #132 25 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-16 Julio Rodríguez #128 26 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-16 Cole Young #123 28 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-16 Randy Arozarena #118 30 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-16 Cal Raleigh #114 32 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-16 Dominic Canzone #52 52 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-16 Luke Raley #31 62 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-10 Tyler Freeman #236 18 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-10 Kyle Karros #232 13 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-10 TJ Rumfield #204 23 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-10 Edouard Julien #187 30 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-10 Ezequiel Tovar #174 32 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-10 Willi Castro #172 29 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-10 Brenton Doyle #161 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-10 Mickey Moniak #15 50 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-05 Abraham Toro #135 28 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-05 Jarren Duran #126 38 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-05 Ceddanne Rafaela #119 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-05 Alex Bregman #101 36 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-05 Romy Gonzalez #88 40 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-05 Carlos Narvaez #75 37 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-05 Roman Anthony #66 41 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-05 Wilyer Abreu #62 45 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-05 Trevor Story #61 37 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-30 Patrick Bailey #198 25 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-30 Jung Hoo Lee #197 27 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-03-30 Tyler Fitzgerald #182 25 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-03-30 Dominic Smith #152 27 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-30 Wilmer Flores #119 28 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-30 Heliot Ramos #103 33 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-03-30 Casey Schmitt #100 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-30 Matt Chapman #79 39 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-03-30 Willy Adames #74 41 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
Six home runs to freedom

Walker Buehler's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

139 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.21 · build 521

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.