2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs
Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo RHP SEA
114 matchups scored · 13 game days
8 HRs Allowed
7.0% HR Rate (Pool)
13.9% Overall HR/FB
4.01 FIP
4.18 xFIP
-0.17 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
0.62
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
13.9%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
64th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
71.4%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
4.01
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
49th pctile
4.18
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.17
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
40th pctile
7.0%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
114
Pool Matchups
8
HRs Allowed (Pool)
5
Top-15 Matchups
2
HRs to Top-15
7.0%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 7 1 0 0.0% 0.0 95.8mph · · · Down -7.0pp
Last 15 15 2 0 0.0% 0.0 95.3mph · · · Down -7.0pp
Last 30 24 3 1 4.2% 0.33 96.2mph 109.4mph 33.0° 420ft Down -2.8pp
Batted-Ball Damage
98 tracked BBE from 114 pool matchups
98.3
114.7
70
0
106.2
31.4°
404
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-26 Daniel Schneemann 103.5mph · · · ·
2026-06-13 CJ Abrams 109.1mph · · · ·
2026-06-13 José Tena 100.6mph · · · ·
2026-06-07 Kevin McGonigle 109.4mph 109.4mph 33° 420ft Yes
2026-06-07 Dillon Dingler 101.6mph · · · ·
2026-06-07 Riley Greene 101.3mph · · · ·
2026-05-25 Nick Kurtz 104.7mph · · · ·
2026-05-25 Shea Langeliers 104.1mph 104.1mph 29° 412ft Yes
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
13 days · 8 total HRs
HRs Allowed
8 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-07 Kevin McGonigle #208 25 Comerica Park 109.4mph 33.0° 420ft
2026-05-25 Shea Langeliers #13 71 Sutter Health Park 104.1mph 29.0° 412.0ft
2026-05-14 Yordan Alvarez #6 76 Minute Maid Park 110.7mph 29.0° 422.0ft
2026-05-09 Colson Montgomery #82 34 Rate Field 98.1mph 38.0° 367.0ft
2026-05-09 Miguel Vargas #107 30 Rate Field 112.9mph 27.0° 404.0ft
2026-04-27 Byron Buxton #53 43 Target Field 104.2mph 39.0° 396.0ft
2026-04-21 Shea Langeliers #28 61 T-Mobile Park 108.7mph 23.0° 417.0ft
2026-04-21 Jeff McNeil #175 27 T-Mobile Park 101.4mph 33.0° 395.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Fastball 624 45.9% +0.4 83.0 37.0° 4
Slider 340 25.0% +0.1 84.9 11.4° 2
Sinker 223 16.4% -0.0 84.2 6.2° 1
Changeup 168 12.4% +2.1 85.8 10.3° 2
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
71.4%
71.4%
All Scored Matchups
114 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-26 Steven Kwan #241 13 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-26 Petey Halpin #227 25 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-26 Patrick Bailey #222 26 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-26 Brayan Rocchio #215 28 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-26 Daniel Schneemann #157 38 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-26 Kyle Manzardo #103 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-26 Travis Bazzana #99 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-13 Nasim Nuñez #228 14 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-13 José Tena #139 41 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-13 Drew Millas #117 45 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-13 Daylen Lile #106 47 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-13 Dylan Crews #79 52 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-13 CJ Abrams #42 59 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-13 Curtis Mead #25 64 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-13 James Wood #6 76 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-07 Colt Keith #226 20 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-07 Zach McKinstry #220 23 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-07 Kevin McGonigle #208 25 ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-06-07 Gleyber Torres #154 37 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-07 Riley Greene #139 39 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-07 Spencer Torkelson #75 50 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-07 Wenceel Pérez #71 51 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-07 Kerry Carpenter #49 57 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-07 Dillon Dingler #20 69 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-25 Lawrence Butler #135 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-25 Jeff Mcneil #95 46 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-25 Jacob Wilson #90 47 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-25 Tyler Soderstrom #76 51 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-25 Carlos Cortes #64 53 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-25 Brent Rooker #27 64 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-25 Shea Langeliers #13 71 🟡 B 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-25 Zack Gelof #10 72 🟡 B 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-25 Nick Kurtz #7 73 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-14 César Salazar #175 14 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-14 Braden Shewmake #144 25 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-14 Isaac Paredes #103 34 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-14 Jose Altuve #87 37 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-14 Brice Matthews #62 45 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-14 Cam Smith #58 46 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-14 Zach Cole #23 58 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-14 Christian Walker #20 61 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-14 Yordan Alvarez #6 76 🟡 B ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-09 Tristan Peters #243 11 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-09 Luisangel Acuña #242 11 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-09 Chase Meidroth #234 13 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-09 Edgar Quero #216 17 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-09 Andrew Benintendi #169 23 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-09 Everson Pereira #126 28 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-09 Miguel Vargas #107 30 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-09 Colson Montgomery #82 34 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-09 Munetaka Murakami #65 37 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-03 Isaac Collins #166 24 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-03 Maikel Garcia #157 25 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-03 Kyle Isbel #114 29 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-03 Vinnie Pasquantino #113 29 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-03 Lane Thomas #105 30 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-03 Salvador Perez #100 31 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-03 Bobby Witt Jr. #90 33 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-03 Jac Caglianone #74 35 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-03 Carter Jensen #45 39 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-27 Luke Keaschall #142 9 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-27 Victor Caratini #139 13 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-27 Austin Martin #123 20 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-27 Trevor Larnach #119 21 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-27 Matt Wallner #118 22 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-27 Brooks Lee #106 25 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-27 Josh Bell #102 26 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-27 Ryan Jeffers #58 41 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-27 Byron Buxton #53 43 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-04-21 Jacob Wilson #201 23 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-21 Denzel Clarke #185 26 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-21 Jeff McNeil #175 27 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-04-21 Lawrence Butler #132 35 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-21 Tyler Soderstrom #69 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-21 Max Muncy #54 53 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-21 Brent Rooker #31 59 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-21 Shea Langeliers #28 61 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-04-21 Nick Kurtz #25 62 🔵 C+ 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-16 Luis Campusano #180 · ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-16 Jake Cronenworth #152 16 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-16 Miguel Andujar #140 22 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-16 Manny Machado #120 29 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-16 Xander Bogaerts #115 32 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-16 Fernando Tatis Jr. #103 35 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-16 Gavin Sheets #90 40 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-16 Jackson Merrill #89 40 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-16 Ramón Laureano #55 50 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-11 Jake Meyers #226 20 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-11 Mauricio Dubon #221 18 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-11 Victor Caratini #190 29 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-11 Yainer Diaz #165 33 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-11 Jeremy Pena #152 33 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-11 Cam Smith #140 27 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-11 Isaac Paredes #118 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-11 Jose Altuve #109 32 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-11 Christian Walker #68 39 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-05 Nolan Schanuel #142 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-05 Luis Rengifo #134 33 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-05 Jorge Soler #63 47 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-05 Yoan Moncada #55 53 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-05 Logan O'Hoppe #54 46 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-05 Zach Neto #40 53 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-05 Taylor Ward #37 56 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-05 Mike Trout #25 53 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-05 Jo Adell #23 59 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-30 Paul Goldschmidt #200 31 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-03-30 Jasson Dominguez #176 30 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-03-30 Anthony Volpe #168 38 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-30 Cody Bellinger #156 39 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-03-30 Austin Wells #134 42 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-03-30 Ben Rice #107 49 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-30 Jazz Chisholm Jr. #87 48 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-30 Trent Grisham #82 47 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-30 Aaron Judge #41 60 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
Six home runs to freedom

Luis Castillo's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

114 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.21 · build 521

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.