Dylan Cease
RHP
TOR
8
HRs Allowed
6.5%
HR Rate (Pool)
8.6%
Overall HR/FB
2.19
FIP
2.59
xFIP
-0.40
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
0.57
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
8.6%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
15th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
61.5%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
2.19
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
3th pctile
2.59
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.40
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
28th pctile
6.5%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
123
Pool Matchups
8
HRs Allowed (Pool)
10
Top-15 Matchups
1
HRs to Top-15
6.5%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 4.0% | 0.33 | 91.5mph | 109.0mph | 21.0° | 445ft | Down -2.5pp |
| Last 15 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 3.0% | 0.25 | 91.5mph | 109.0mph | 21.0° | 445ft | Down -3.5pp |
| Last 30 | 42 | 5 | 3 | 7.1% | 0.6 | 92.1mph | 107.4mph | 25.0° | 430ft | Flat +0.6pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
95.2
Avg Max EV
112.7
Max EV Allowed
59
Hard-Hit Proxy · 61.5%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
104.3
Avg HR EV
25.6°
Avg HR Launch
397
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Christian Walker | 102.4mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Jarren Duran | 109.0mph | 109.0mph | 21° | 445ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-16 | Ceddanne Rafaela | 103.4mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Caleb Durbin | 100.0mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Bryce Harper | 109.9mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Kyle Schwarber | 100.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Bryson Stott | 100.0mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Oneil Cruz | 106.5mph | 105.8mph | 29° | 415ft | Yes |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Jarren Duran | #155 | 39 | Fenway Park | 109.0mph | 21.0° | 445ft |
| 2026-05-24 | Oneil Cruz | #98 | 48 | Rogers Centre | 105.8mph | 29.0° | 415.0ft |
| 2026-05-24 | Spencer Horwitz | #143 | 42 | Rogers Centre | · | · | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Ben Rice | #3 | 88 | Yankee Stadium | 96.6mph | 30.0° | 366.0ft |
| 2026-05-19 | Ryan McMahon | #156 | 36 | Yankee Stadium | 104.1mph | 29.0° | 383.0ft |
| 2026-05-02 | Byron Buxton | #134 | 27 | Target Field | 99.6mph | 30.0° | 363.0ft |
| 2026-04-27 | Carlos Narváez | #57 | 41 | Rogers Centre | 105.4mph | 20.0° | 388.0ft |
| 2026-03-28 | Shea Langeliers | #28 | 54 | Rogers Centre | 109.7mph | 20.0° | 420.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 504 | 34.3% | -0.2 | 82.3 | 30.5° | 4 |
| Slider | 442 | 30.1% | -2.6 | 78.2 | 8.1° | 1 |
| Changeup | 160 | 10.9% | +0.3 | 80.2 | 26.5° | 0 |
| Sinker | 149 | 10.1% | -2.7 | 79.2 | 18.6° | 0 |
| Knuckle Curve | 139 | 9.5% | +0.7 | 81.0 | -7.6° | 0 |
| Sweeper | 75 | 5.1% | +0.6 | 78.9 | 6.7° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
61.5%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Joey Loperfido | #193 | 30 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Yainer Diaz | #181 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Jake Meyers | #150 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Jose Altuve | #125 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Isaac Paredes | #117 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Jeremy Peña | #112 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Christian Walker | #32 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-22 | Yordan Alvarez | #14 | 71 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Nico Hoerner | #218 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Alex Bregman | #178 | 35 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Carson Kelly | #169 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Dansby Swanson | #165 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Seiya Suzuki | #123 | 44 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Michael Busch | #122 | 44 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Ian Happ | #46 | 60 | 🔵 C+ | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #41 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | #222 | 15 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Connor Wong | #214 | 23 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Masataka Yoshida | #207 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Marcelo Mayer | #205 | 26 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Caleb Durbin | #192 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Ceddanne Rafaela | #183 | 33 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Jarren Duran | #155 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-16 | Wilyer Abreu | #130 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-16 | Willson Contreras | #59 | 57 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Justin Crawford | #210 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Trea Turner | #173 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Alec Bohm | #138 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Bryson Stott | #132 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Adolis García | #111 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Brandon Marsh | #32 | 60 | 🔵 C+ | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Bryce Harper | #22 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Kyle Schwarber | #7 | 70 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Jared Triolo | #283 | 12 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Jake Mangum | #282 | 13 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Nick Gonzales | #281 | 13 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Bryan Reynolds | #226 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Endy Rodríguez | #199 | 35 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Esmerlyn Valdez | #171 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Spencer Horwitz | #143 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-24 | Oneil Cruz | #98 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-24 | Brandon Lowe | #28 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Anthony Volpe | #190 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Austin Wells | #157 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Ryan McMahon | #156 | 36 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-05-19 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | #141 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Cody Bellinger | #61 | 54 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Spencer Jones | #28 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Trent Grisham | #27 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Aaron Judge | #4 | 88 | 🟢 A | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Ben Rice | #3 | 88 | 🟢 A | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-13 | Taylor Walls | #245 | 13 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Cedric Mullins | #233 | 16 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Chandler Simpson | #227 | 17 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Nick Fortes | #218 | 19 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Yandy Díaz | #149 | 28 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Jake Fraley | #133 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Ben Williamson | #132 | 30 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Jonathan Aranda | #88 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Junior Caminero | #47 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Logan O'Hoppe | #179 | 19 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Jo Adell | #178 | 19 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Nolan Schanuel | #155 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Oswald Peraza | #146 | 23 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Zach Neto | #127 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Josh Lowe | #104 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Yoán Moncada | #103 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Jorge Soler | #85 | 32 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Mike Trout | #50 | 40 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Victor Caratini | #237 | 10 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Luke Keaschall | #227 | 12 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Austin Martin | #218 | 14 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Josh Bell | #204 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Trevor Larnach | #191 | 19 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Matt Wallner | #190 | 19 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Brooks Lee | #162 | 23 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Ryan Jeffers | #155 | 24 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Byron Buxton | #134 | 27 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-27 | Trevor Story | #66 | 38 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Caleb Durbin | #63 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Carlos Narváez | #57 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-27 | Ceddanne Rafaela | #45 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Marcelo Mayer | #42 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Jarren Duran | #39 | 49 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Roman Anthony | #31 | 53 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Wilyer Abreu | #27 | 56 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Willson Contreras | #12 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Nolan Schanuel | #145 | 25 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Logan O'Hoppe | #100 | 37 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Yoán Moncada | #75 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Josh Lowe | #70 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Jo Adell | #51 | 50 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Oswald Peraza | #35 | 57 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Zach Neto | #33 | 58 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Jorge Soler | #11 | 69 | 🔵 C+ | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-20 | Mike Trout | #5 | 77 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Brandon Lockridge | #125 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Garrett Mitchell | #118 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Joey Ortiz | #87 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Sal Frelick | #79 | 33 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-15 | David Hamilton | #65 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | William Contreras | #61 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Brice Turang | #29 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Jake Bauers | #23 | 52 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-15 | Gary Sánchez | #16 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Michael Conforto | #120 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Tommy Edman | #78 | 37 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Mookie Betts | #77 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Will Smith | #35 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Freddie Freeman | #29 | 49 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Andy Pages | #25 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Max Muncy | #22 | 53 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Teoscar Hernandez | #12 | 50 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Shohei Ohtani | #1 | 68 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Jeff McNeil | #129 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Jacob Wilson | #101 | 32 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Denzel Clarke | #76 | 38 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Carlos Cortes | #66 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Brent Rooker | #49 | 51 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Max Muncy | #36 | 52 | 🟠 C | · — | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Shea Langeliers | #28 | 54 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | 💥 |
| 2026-03-28 | Tyler Soderstrom | #27 | 48 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-28 | Nick Kurtz | #3 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | ❄ COLD | · |