Parker Messick
LHP
CLE
11
HRs Allowed
8.0%
HR Rate (Pool)
13.0%
Overall HR/FB
2.79
FIP
3.13
xFIP
-0.34
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
0.69
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
13.0%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
56th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
63.1%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
2.79
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
12th pctile
3.13
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.34
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
30th pctile
8.0%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
138
Pool Matchups
11
HRs Allowed (Pool)
9
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
8.0%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 6.7% | 0.5 | 95.2mph | 101.0mph | 33.0° | 376ft | Flat -1.3pp |
| Last 15 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 4.5% | 0.33 | 95.7mph | 101.0mph | 33.0° | 376ft | Down -3.5pp |
| Last 30 | 39 | 5 | 3 | 7.7% | 0.6 | 95.8mph | 103.9mph | 26.0° | 382ft | Flat -0.3pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
96.9
Avg Max EV
114.1
Max EV Allowed
77
Hard-Hit Proxy · 63.1%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
102.6
Avg HR EV
28.7°
Avg HR Launch
378
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Randal Grichuk | 106.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Miguel Vargas | 104.3mph | 101.0mph | 33° | 376ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-23 | Sam Antonacci | 103.0mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Gary Sánchez | 105.9mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Brice Turang | 103.1mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Joey Ortiz | 100.7mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Amed Rosario | 109.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Trent Grisham | 101.4mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Miguel Vargas | #72 | 52 | Rate Field | 101.0mph | 33.0° | 376ft |
| 2026-06-05 | Corey Seager | #117 | 44 | Globe Life Field | 105.1mph | 28.0° | 399ft |
| 2026-05-30 | Jarren Duran | #127 | 47 | Progressive Field | 105.6mph | 17.0° | 371ft |
| 2026-05-19 | Spencer Torkelson | #112 | 43 | Comerica Park | 95.8mph | 36.0° | 380.0ft |
| 2026-05-13 | Zach Neto | #173 | 26 | Progressive Field | 107.8mph | 38.0° | 361.0ft |
| 2026-05-08 | Byron Buxton | #115 | 29 | Progressive Field | 103.5mph | 27.0° | 400.0ft |
| 2026-05-03 | Tyler Soderstrom | #23 | 43 | Sutter Health Park | 103.0mph | 24.0° | 379.0ft |
| 2026-04-27 | Jonathan Aranda | #36 | 50 | Progressive Field | 103.6mph | 26.0° | 373.0ft |
| 2026-04-05 | Dansby Swanson | #93 | 39 | Progressive Field | 100.6mph | 28.0° | 380.0ft |
| 2026-04-05 | Ian Happ | #108 | 38 | Progressive Field | 107.5mph | 25.0° | 382.0ft |
| 2026-04-05 | Matt Shaw | #130 | 35 | Progressive Field | 95.2mph | 34.0° | 355.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 469 | 31.2% | -2.4 | 82.3 | 31.3° | 2 |
| Changeup | 375 | 25.0% | -0.2 | 81.9 | 2.6° | 0 |
| Sinker | 260 | 17.3% | -3.4 | 85.8 | 14.5° | 1 |
| Curveball | 169 | 11.2% | -0.1 | 77.1 | 20.5° | 0 |
| Slider | 116 | 7.7% | +0.0 | 79.2 | 16.3° | 3 |
| Cutter | 114 | 7.6% | +2.0 | 75.0 | 27.2° | 3 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
63.1%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Luisangel Acuña | #225 | 20 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Chase Meidroth | #196 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Sam Antonacci | #155 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Drew Romo | #144 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Miguel Vargas | #72 | 52 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-23 | Colson Montgomery | #32 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-23 | Randal Grichuk | #30 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Joey Ortiz | #130 | 20 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Blake Perkins | #83 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Andrew Vaughn | #69 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Christian Yelich | #64 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Brice Turang | #41 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Gary Sánchez | #18 | 66 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Jackson Chourio | #13 | 71 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-18 | Jake Bauers | #9 | 73 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Anthony Volpe | #214 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-10 | José Caballero | #199 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Cody Bellinger | #136 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Trent Grisham | #121 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Amed Rosario | #88 | 48 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Paul Goldschmidt | #75 | 51 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Ben Rice | #23 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Ezequiel Duran | #196 | 30 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Danny Jansen | #192 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Josh Jung | #177 | 33 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Evan Carter | #158 | 38 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Corey Seager | #117 | 44 | ⚪ D | · — | 💥 |
| 2026-06-05 | Jake Burger | #115 | 44 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Brandon Nimmo | #110 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-05 | Joc Pederson | #55 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Nick Sogard | #263 | 16 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Connor Wong | #253 | 20 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Andruw Monasterio | #250 | 21 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Caleb Durbin | #249 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | #237 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Wilyer Abreu | #219 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Ceddanne Rafaela | #212 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Jarren Duran | #127 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-30 | Willson Contreras | #92 | 53 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | J.T. Realmuto | #257 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Adolis García | #220 | 32 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Brandon Marsh | #192 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Trea Turner | #158 | 40 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Bryson Stott | #84 | 50 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Alec Bohm | #77 | 52 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Edmundo Sosa | #71 | 54 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Bryce Harper | #15 | 70 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Kyle Schwarber | #1 | 89 | 🟢 A | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Wenceel Pérez | #235 | 18 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Kevin McGonigle | #188 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Matt Vierling | #170 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Spencer Torkelson | #112 | 43 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-05-19 | Hao-Yu Lee | #102 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Riley Greene | #101 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Jahmai Jones | #81 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Dillon Dingler | #76 | 50 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Zack Short | #66 | 53 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Logan O'Hoppe | #231 | 16 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Nolan Schanuel | #211 | 20 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Josh Lowe | #203 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Oswald Peraza | #202 | 22 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Jo Adell | #201 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Yoán Moncada | #188 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Zach Neto | #173 | 26 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-13 | Jorge Soler | #102 | 34 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Mike Trout | #66 | 39 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Victor Caratini | #225 | 10 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Luke Keaschall | #216 | 11 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Austin Martin | #196 | 16 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Matt Wallner | #188 | 18 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Trevor Larnach | #167 | 21 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Josh Bell | #128 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Ryan Jeffers | #124 | 27 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Byron Buxton | #115 | 29 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-08 | Brooks Lee | #87 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Jacob Wilson | #132 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Brent Rooker | #111 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Max Muncy | #89 | 33 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Lawrence Butler | #82 | 34 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Jeff McNeil | #57 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Nick Kurtz | #43 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Tyler Soderstrom | #23 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-03 | Carlos Cortes | #10 | 48 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Shea Langeliers | #9 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Taylor Walls | #128 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Chandler Simpson | #127 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Nick Fortes | #108 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Cedric Mullins | #98 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Ben Williamson | #96 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Yandy Díaz | #77 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Jonny DeLuca | #61 | 40 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Jonathan Aranda | #36 | 50 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-27 | Junior Caminero | #30 | 54 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Isaac Paredes | #128 | 35 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Jeremy Peña | #123 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Yainer Diaz | #97 | 42 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Joey Loperfido | #91 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Carlos Correa | #81 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Jose Altuve | #71 | 46 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Christian Walker | #27 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Cam Smith | #17 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Yordan Alvarez | #3 | 78 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Blaze Alexander | #127 | 26 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Coby Mayo | #116 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Leody Taveras | #110 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Johnathan Rodríguez | #106 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Taylor Ward | #98 | 36 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Pete Alonso | #51 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Samuel Basallo | #35 | 59 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Jeremiah Jackson | #34 | 60 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Gunnar Henderson | #23 | 67 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Nick Allen | #233 | 15 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Ozzie Albies | #186 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Michael Harris II | #104 | 41 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Austin Riley | #102 | 45 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Marcell Ozuna | #93 | 43 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Jurickson Profar | #59 | 43 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | #31 | 53 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Drake Baldwin | #17 | 48 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-11 | Matt Olson | #16 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Nico Hoerner | #228 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Matt Shaw | #130 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-05 | Kyle Tucker | #117 | 41 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Ian Happ | #108 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-05 | Carson Kelly | #102 | 38 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #100 | 46 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Dansby Swanson | #93 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-05 | Seiya Suzuki | #78 | 47 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Michael Busch | #47 | 51 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Mookie Betts | #104 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Michael Conforto | #80 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Will Smith | #48 | 48 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Tommy Edman | #45 | 38 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Andy Pages | #39 | 45 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Freddie Freeman | #34 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Max Muncy | #22 | 52 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Teoscar Hernandez | #14 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Shohei Ohtani | #1 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |