Ryne Nelson
RHP
AZ
14
HRs Allowed
11.7%
HR Rate (Pool)
15.1%
Overall HR/FB
5.12
FIP
4.64
xFIP
+0.48
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
1.0
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
15.1%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
73th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
72.3%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
5.12
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
82th pctile
4.64
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.48
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
73th pctile
11.7%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
120
Pool Matchups
14
HRs Allowed (Pool)
4
Top-15 Matchups
1
HRs to Top-15
11.7%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 21.4% | 1.5 | 99.9mph | 107.1mph | 26.0° | 389ft | Up +9.7pp |
| Last 15 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 14.3% | 1.0 | 98.8mph | 107.1mph | 26.0° | 389ft | Up +2.6pp |
| Last 30 | 48 | 6 | 8 | 16.7% | 1.33 | 99.8mph | 107.0mph | 27.0° | 398ft | Up +5.0pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
99.9
Avg Max EV
112.2
Max EV Allowed
68
Hard-Hit Proxy · 72.3%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
105.2
Avg HR EV
27.7°
Avg HR Launch
398
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Oswald Peraza | 104.7mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Logan O'Hoppe | 104.1mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Jo Adell | 102.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Mike Trout | 100.4mph | 100.4mph | 29° | 371ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-10 | Otto Lopez | 111.9mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Kyle Stowers | 110.8mph | 110.8mph | 26° | 425ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-10 | Owen Caissie | 110.2mph | 110.2mph | 23° | 370ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-10 | Jakob Marsee | 105.8mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Mike Trout | #20 | 65 | Chase Field | 100.4mph | 29.0° | 371ft |
| 2026-06-10 | Owen Caissie | #80 | 50 | loanDepot Park | 110.2mph | 23.0° | 370ft |
| 2026-06-10 | Kyle Stowers | #85 | 49 | loanDepot Park | 110.8mph | 26.0° | 425ft |
| 2026-05-30 | Luke Raley | #12 | 75 | T-Mobile Park | 106.7mph | 32.0° | 390ft |
| 2026-05-30 | Dominic Canzone | #30 | 65 | T-Mobile Park | 100.4mph | 28.0° | 412ft |
| 2026-05-30 | Julio Rodríguez | #36 | 63 | T-Mobile Park | 107.9mph | 25.0° | 418ft |
| 2026-05-19 | Rafael Devers | #122 | 42 | Chase Field | 111.2mph | 27.0° | 441.0ft |
| 2026-05-19 | Willy Adames | #153 | 37 | Chase Field | 108.1mph | 26.0° | 359.0ft |
| 2026-05-13 | Jake Burger | #99 | 35 | Globe Life Field | 99.3mph | 35.0° | 370.0ft |
| 2026-05-08 | Mark Vientos | #150 | 23 | Chase Field | 104.0mph | 24.0° | 401.0ft |
| 2026-05-02 | Ian Happ | #55 | 38 | Wrigley Field | 110.6mph | 26.0° | 399.0ft |
| 2026-04-26 | Manny Machado | #177 | 37 | Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu | 96.1mph | 31.0° | 395.0ft |
| 2026-04-02 | Matt Olson | #18 | 41 | Chase Field | 108.0mph | 31.0° | 430.0ft |
| 2026-03-27 | Mookie Betts | #93 | 32 | UNIQLO FIELD AT DODGER STADIUM | 99.5mph | 25.0° | 388.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 775 | 56.9% | -0.4 | 84.2 | 27.9° | 10 |
| Slider | 276 | 20.2% | +2.0 | 83.9 | 14.4° | 4 |
| Cutter | 133 | 9.8% | +0.7 | 83.2 | 19.5° | 1 |
| Curveball | 131 | 9.6% | +1.5 | 83.5 | 11.2° | 1 |
| Sinker | 48 | 3.5% | +3.4 | 85.5 | 31.9° | 2 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
72.3%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Nolan Schanuel | #131 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Logan O'Hoppe | #90 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Jo Adell | #76 | 47 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Oswald Peraza | #75 | 47 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Zach Neto | #24 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Mike Trout | #20 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-10 | Christopher Morel | #212 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Jakob Marsee | #198 | 27 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Javier Sanoja | #194 | 28 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Xavier Edwards | #142 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Otto Lopez | #130 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Liam Hicks | #93 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-10 | Kyle Stowers | #85 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-06-10 | Owen Caissie | #80 | 50 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-04 | Kyle Tucker | #105 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Alex Freeland | #79 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Will Smith | #57 | 49 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Freddie Freeman | #42 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Shohei Ohtani | #31 | 57 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Andy Pages | #19 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-04 | Max Muncy | #17 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Leo Rivas | #238 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Josh Naylor | #208 | 34 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Cole Young | #182 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Cal Raleigh | #87 | 54 | 🟠 C | · — | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Randy Arozarena | #69 | 57 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-30 | J. P. Crawford | #39 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-30 | Julio Rodríguez | #36 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-30 | Dominic Canzone | #30 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-30 | Luke Raley | #12 | 75 | 🟡 B | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-05-24 | Sterlin Thompson | #287 | 7 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Tyler Freeman | #276 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Brett Sullivan | #266 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Kyle Karros | #260 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Troy Johnston | #255 | 25 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Ezequiel Tovar | #240 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Edouard Julien | #218 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | Jake McCarthy | #178 | 38 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-24 | TJ Rumfield | #112 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Drew Gilbert | #238 | 18 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Jung Hoo Lee | #237 | 18 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Luis Arraez | #231 | 20 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Patrick Bailey | #204 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Matt Chapman | #186 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Willy Adames | #153 | 37 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-19 | Rafael Devers | #122 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-19 | Heliot Ramos | #87 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Casey Schmitt | #37 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Josh Smith | #237 | 15 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Evan Carter | #156 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Wyatt Langford | #144 | 29 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Danny Jansen | #118 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Joc Pederson | #117 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Jake Burger | #99 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-13 | Brandon Nimmo | #80 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Josh Jung | #76 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-13 | Corey Seager | #44 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Marcus Semien | #237 | 8 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Brett Baty | #228 | 10 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Carson Benge | #200 | 16 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Luis Robert Jr. | #199 | 16 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Bo Bichette | #198 | 16 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Francisco Lindor | #184 | 19 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Mark Vientos | #150 | 23 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | 💥 |
| 2026-05-08 | Francisco Alvarez | #142 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-08 | Juan Soto | #118 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Carson Kelly | #89 | 33 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Matt Shaw | #80 | 35 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Nico Hoerner | #64 | 37 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Michael Busch | #56 | 38 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Ian Happ | #55 | 38 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-05-02 | Alex Bregman | #51 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Dansby Swanson | #35 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #25 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-02 | Moisés Ballesteros | #20 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Freddy Fermin | #219 | 30 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Jake Cronenworth | #199 | 33 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Miguel Andujar | #189 | 35 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Manny Machado | #177 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-26 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | #132 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Xander Bogaerts | #126 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Jackson Merrill | #114 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Gavin Sheets | #86 | 54 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-26 | Ramón Laureano | #53 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Nathan Lukes | #261 | 11 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Ernie Clement | #252 | 15 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Andrés Giménez | #229 | 23 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Kazuma Okamoto | #213 | 26 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Jesús Sánchez | #207 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Daulton Varsho | #194 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-19 | George Springer | #189 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | #152 | 40 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-19 | Davis Schneider | #107 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Tyrone Taylor | #219 | 23 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Jeff McNeil | #169 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Starling Marte | #131 | 32 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Brandon Nimmo | #122 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Mark Vientos | #115 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Francisco Lindor | #100 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Brett Baty | #86 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Pete Alonso | #55 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-08 | Juan Soto | #41 | 52 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-02 | Nick Allen | #54 | 5 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-02 | Ozzie Albies | #43 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-02 | Jurickson Profar | #34 | 34 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-02 | Austin Riley | #31 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-02 | Michael Harris II | #30 | 33 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-02 | Marcell Ozuna | #19 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-02 | Matt Olson | #18 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-02 | Drake Baldwin | #12 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-02 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | #7 | 44 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-27 | Mookie Betts | #93 | 32 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-03-27 | Michael Conforto | #85 | 34 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-03-27 | Will Smith | #67 | 43 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-27 | Tommy Edman | #65 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-27 | Andy Pages | #63 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-27 | Freddie Freeman | #60 | 43 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-03-27 | Max Muncy | #43 | 47 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-03-27 | Teoscar Hernandez | #41 | 44 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-27 | Shohei Ohtani | #7 | 60 | 🔵 C+ | ❄ COLD | · |