Today · 2026-06-25

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

#2 Yordan Alvarez vs Troy Melton FIP 5.48 HR/FB 23.8%

📦 STACK Connelly Early FIP 4.91 HR/FB 22.2% → #1 Ben Rice, #7 Paul Goldschmidt

📦 STACK Matthew Boyd FIP 3.76 HR/FB 21.7% → #3 Juan Soto, #12 Francisco Alvarez, #13 Mark Vientos

📦 STACK Freddy Peralta FIP 4.38 HR/FB 25.6% → #6 Pete Crow-Armstrong, #14 Ian Happ

📦 STACK Kevin Gausman FIP 3.64 HR/FB 13.0% → #9 Corey Seager, #11 Joc Pederson

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-06-24. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

91.1% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Ben Rice (L) ³	78	+9.9	●	Connelly Early (LHP) NYY @ BOS · Fenway Park	7:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	22	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%12.8% Avg EV91.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-06-21 OffChase Burns Exit Velo105.1 mph Angle41.0° Distance375 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○●○○○	1.5×	·	BOS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.19 FIP4.14 IP693.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Fenway Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp83.7°F Wind3 mph W Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note84°F, wind 3 mph W (out) — modifier: +1
2	Juan Soto (L)	75	+8.5	●	Matthew Boyd (LHP) CHC @ NYM · Citi Field	7:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	17	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%13.3% Avg EV93.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-06-18 OffAaron Nola Exit Velo105.0 mph Angle42.0° Distance389 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○○	1.7×	1	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.5% HR/91.52 FIP4.71 IP710.4 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+11 Weather · Citi Field hot air · strong partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp82.0°F Wind16.0 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+11 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note82°F, wind 16 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +4
3	Kyle Schwarber (L) ⁴	75	+7.5	●	Cade Cavalli (RHP) PHI @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	29	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%12.8% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-06-21 OffDavid Peterson Exit Velo105.1 mph Angle35.0° Distance418 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○●●○○	0.7×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.3% HR/91.43 FIP4.78 IP749.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+18 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp87.4°F Wind7 mph SW Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+18 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 29 HR Note87°F, wind 7 mph SW (in) — modifier: +1
4	Kazuma Okamoto (R)	70	+0.9	●	MacKenzie Gore (LHP) TEX @ TOR · Rogers Centre	7:07p	🟡 B	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV92.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-06-22 OffHunter Brown Exit Velo101.9 mph Angle23.0° Distance388 ft StadiumRogers Centre	●○●○○	1.0×	·	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.9% HR/91.23 FIP4.21 IP717.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
5	Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) ³	69	+5.7	●	Freddy Peralta (RHP) CHC @ NYM · Citi Field	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%8.1% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-06-23 OffKodai Senga Exit Velo101.9 mph Angle27.0° Distance409 ft StadiumCiti Field	○○●○○	0.7×	1	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.02 FIP3.97 IP668.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-2 Weather · Citi Field hot air · strong partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp82.0°F Wind16.0 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind-2 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note82°F, wind 16 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +4
6	Paul Goldschmidt (R) ²	69	·	●	Connelly Early (LHP) NYY @ BOS · Fenway Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV86.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-24 OffTarik Skubal Exit Velo104.9 mph Angle30.0° Distance427 ft StadiumComerica Park	○●○○●	0.0×	·	BOS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.19 FIP4.14 IP693.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+24 Weather · Fenway Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp83.7°F Wind3 mph W Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+24 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 12 HR Note84°F, wind 3 mph W (out) — modifier: +1
7	Dillon Dingler (R)	67	·	●	Tatsuya Imai (RHP) HOU @ DET · Comerica Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%10.6% Avg EV91.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-06-21 OffGrant Taylor Exit Velo107.6 mph Angle20.0° Distance384 ft StadiumComerica Park	●●○○○	1.0×	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.0% HR/91.31 FIP4.79 IP728.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+49 Weather · Comerica Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.2°F Wind3 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+49 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note79°F, wind 3 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1
8	James Wood (L) ³	67	·	●	Cristopher Sánchez (LHP) PHI @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	20	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%14.5% Avg EV95.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	11d Last HR · 2026-06-14 OffEmerson Hancock Exit Velo109.4 mph Angle35.0° Distance413 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○○○	3.0×	·	PHI Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.6% HR/91.18 FIP3.77 IP706.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp87.4°F Wind7 mph SW Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note87°F, wind 7 mph SW (in) — modifier: +1
9	Corey Seager (L)	65	+5.1	●	Kevin Gausman (RHP) TEX @ TOR · Rogers Centre	7:07p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	9	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls4 BBE Barrel%11.0% Avg EV91.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	14d Last HR · 2026-06-11 OffMichael Wacha Exit Velo100.0 mph Angle35.0° Distance391 ft StadiumKauffman Stadium	●○○○●	0.0×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.12 FIP4.01 IP716.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 9 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
10	Yordan Alvarez (L) ³	64	·	●	Troy Melton (RHP) HOU @ DET · Comerica Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	25	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV94.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	23d Last HR · 2026-06-02 OffBubba Chandler Exit Velo103.0 mph Angle39.0° Distance363 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	○○○○○	2.5×	·	DET Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.3% HR/90.99 FIP3.92 IP721.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+43 Weather · Comerica Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.2°F Wind3 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+43 · Green alignment Spray Sourceblend · 2 HR Note79°F, wind 3 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1
11	Joc Pederson (L) ³	64	·	●	Kevin Gausman (RHP) TEX @ TOR · Rogers Centre	7:07p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	12	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%9.0% Avg EV91.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-24 OffPete Fairbanks Exit Velo102.0 mph Angle28.0° Distance426 ft StadiumloanDepot Park	○○○●●	0.0×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.12 FIP4.01 IP716.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 11 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
12	Jordan Walker (R) ⁴	63	·	●	Zac Gallen (RHP) AZ @ STL · Busch Stadium	6:45p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	18	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%11.6% Avg EV93.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12d Last HR · 2026-06-13 OffJustin Lawrence Exit Velo116.6 mph Angle24.0° Distance454 ft StadiumTarget Field	○○○○○	3.3×	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.27 FIP4.54 IP706.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+22 Weather · Busch Stadium hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.7°F Wind1.0 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note87°F, wind 1 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +2
13	Mark Vientos (R)	62	+5.2	●	Matthew Boyd (LHP) CHC @ NYM · Citi Field	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	10	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls17 BBE Barrel%11.0% Avg EV89.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-24 OffShota Imanaga Exit Velo108.4 mph Angle23.0° Distance416 ft StadiumCiti Field	○○●○●	0.0×	1	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.5% HR/91.52 FIP4.71 IP710.4 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+70 Weather · Citi Field hot air · strong partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp82.0°F Wind16.0 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+70 · Deep green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 10 HR Note82°F, wind 16 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +4
14	Ian Happ (S)	62	·	●	Freddy Peralta (RHP) CHC @ NYM · Citi Field	7:10p	🔵 C+	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%8.6% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12d Last HR · 2026-06-13 OffReiver Sanmartin Exit Velo103.6 mph Angle29.0° Distance404 ft StadiumOracle Park	○○○○○	2.8×	3	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.02 FIP3.97 IP668.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+33 Weather · Citi Field hot air · strong partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp82.0°F Wind16.0 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+33 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note82°F, wind 16 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +4
15	Jac Caglianone (L) ⁴	61	·	●	Casey Legumina (RHP) KC @ TB · Tropicana Field	12:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%11.5% Avg EV93.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-06-23 OffShane McClanahan Exit Velo110.0 mph Angle22.0° Distance416 ft StadiumTropicana Field	●●○●○	0.2×	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.14 FIP4.11 IP715.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
16	Amed Rosario (R) ³	61	·	●	Connelly Early (LHP) NYY @ BOS · Fenway Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	7	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls14 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV90.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-06-22 OffDrew Anderson Exit Velo103.2 mph Angle24.0° Distance373 ft StadiumComerica Park	○○○○●	·	·	BOS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.19 FIP4.14 IP693.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+25 Weather · Fenway Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp83.7°F Wind3 mph W Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+25 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 7 HR Note84°F, wind 3 mph W (out) — modifier: +1
17	Bryce Harper (L) ²	61	·	●	Cade Cavalli (RHP) PHI @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-06-21 OffAustin Warren Exit Velo108.1 mph Angle25.0° Distance390 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	●●○○○	0.6×	1	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.3% HR/91.43 FIP4.78 IP749.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+3 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp87.4°F Wind7 mph SW Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+3 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note87°F, wind 7 mph SW (in) — modifier: +1
18	Christian Walker (R) ³	60	·	●	Troy Melton (RHP) HOU @ DET · Comerica Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	18	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%8.2% Avg EV90.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12d Last HR · 2026-06-13 OffNoah Cameron Exit Velo108.9 mph Angle20.0° Distance394 ft StadiumKauffman Stadium	○○○○○	3.0×	·	DET Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.3% HR/90.99 FIP3.92 IP721.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+47 Weather · Comerica Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.2°F Wind3 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+47 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note79°F, wind 3 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1
19	Wyatt Langford (R) ²	60	·	●	Kevin Gausman (RHP) TEX @ TOR · Rogers Centre	7:07p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	8	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls43 BBE Barrel%7.5% Avg EV89.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-24 OffEury Pérez Exit Velo106.5 mph Angle27.0° Distance437 ft StadiumloanDepot Park	○●○○●	0.0×	1	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.12 FIP4.01 IP716.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 6 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
20	Luke Raley (L)	60	·	●	Bubba Chandler (RHP) SEA @ PIT · PNC Park	12:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls15 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV90.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	14d Last HR · 2026-06-11 OffKyle Bradish Exit Velo92.4 mph Angle34.0° Distance388 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○○○○	3.0×	·	PIT Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.4% HR/90.99 FIP4.00 IP725.8 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+22 Weather · PNC Park warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81.1°F Wind5.0 mph SE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR Note81°F, wind 5 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1
21	Curtis Mead (R)	60	·	●	Cristopher Sánchez (LHP) PHI @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV88.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-06-24 OffJonathan Bowlan Exit Velo102.8 mph Angle31.0° Distance394 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○●○●	0.0×	·	PHI Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.6% HR/91.18 FIP3.77 IP706.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-20 Weather · Nationals Park hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp87.4°F Wind7 mph SW Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-20 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 12 HR Note87°F, wind 7 mph SW (in) — modifier: +1
22	Jake Burger (R)	59	·	●	Kevin Gausman (RHP) TEX @ TOR · Rogers Centre	7:07p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	14	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%8.7% Avg EV90.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-06-20 OffJason Adam Exit Velo104.1 mph Angle32.0° Distance408 ft StadiumGlobe Life Field	○●○○○	0.8×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.12 FIP4.01 IP716.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
23	Corbin Carroll (L) ⁴	59	·	●	Michael McGreevy (RHP) AZ @ STL · Busch Stadium	6:45p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls40 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV91.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-06-17 OffSam Aldegheri Exit Velo100.8 mph Angle38.0° Distance378 ft StadiumChase Field	○○○○○	1.5×	·	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.3% HR/91.14 FIP4.35 IP693.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+34 Weather · Busch Stadium hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.7°F Wind1.0 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+34 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note87°F, wind 1 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +2
24	Bryce Eldridge (L) ³	59	·	●	Jeffrey Springs (LHP) ATH @ SF · Oracle Park	12:45p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	6	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-06-17 OffJR Ritchie Exit Velo100.9 mph Angle33.0° Distance406 ft StadiumTruist Park	○●○○○	1.0×	·	ATH Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.6% HR/91.46 FIP4.82 IP734.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+81 Weather · Oracle Park mild air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.1°F Wind10 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+81 · Deep green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 6 HR Note65°F, wind 10 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +1
25	Casey Schmitt (R) ³	58	·	●	Jeffrey Springs (LHP) ATH @ SF · Oracle Park	12:45p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV89.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-06-20 OffMax Meyer Exit Velo104.1 mph Angle30.0° Distance414 ft StadiumloanDepot Park	○●○○○	0.8×	·	ATH Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.6% HR/91.46 FIP4.82 IP734.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+34 Weather · Oracle Park mild air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.1°F Wind10 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+34 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note65°F, wind 10 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +1
26	Alec Burleson (L) ⁴	57	·	●	Zac Gallen (RHP) AZ @ STL · Busch Stadium	6:45p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	13	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls46 BBE Barrel%10.3% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	11d Last HR · 2026-06-14 OffTaj Bradley Exit Velo110.4 mph Angle39.0° Distance397 ft StadiumTarget Field	○○○○○	1.8×	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.27 FIP4.54 IP706.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+39 Weather · Busch Stadium hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86.7°F Wind1.0 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+39 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note87°F, wind 1 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +2
27	Spencer Torkelson (R)	56	·	●	Tatsuya Imai (RHP) HOU @ DET · Comerica Park	6:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	12	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-06-15 OffKai-Wei Teng Exit Velo103.0 mph Angle27.0° Distance372 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	○○○○○	2.7×	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.0% HR/91.31 FIP4.79 IP728.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+49 Weather · Comerica Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.2°F Wind3 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+49 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 12 HR Note79°F, wind 3 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1
28	Colt Emerson (L) ²	56	·	●	Bubba Chandler (RHP) SEA @ PIT · PNC Park	12:35p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	6	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%6.0% Avg EV86.0 mph Surprise BarrelYes Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12d Last HR · 2026-06-13 OffCade Cavalli Exit Velo98.6 mph Angle36.0° Distance386 ft StadiumNationals Park	●○○○○	0.8×	·	PIT Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.4% HR/90.99 FIP4.00 IP725.8 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+20 Weather · PNC Park warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81.1°F Wind5.0 mph SE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+20 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 6 HR Note81°F, wind 5 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1
29	Junior Caminero (R) ³	56	·	●	Seth Lugo (RHP) KC @ TB · Tropicana Field	12:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-06-23 OffBeck Way Exit Velo108.5 mph Angle38.0° Distance416 ft StadiumTropicana Field	○○○●○	0.2×	·	KC Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.21 FIP4.51 IP711.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
30	Nick Kurtz (L) ²	56	·	●	Landen Roupp (RHP) ATH @ SF · Oracle Park	12:45p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%8.2% Avg EV94.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Analyst note: recent contact quality can lead HR results. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-06-21 OffBrent Suter Exit Velo109.2 mph Angle27.0° Distance437 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○●○○	1.0×	·	SF Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.01 FIP4.23 IP691.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+68 Weather · Oracle Park mild air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.1°F Wind10 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+68 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note65°F, wind 10 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +1

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

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Today's Locks

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Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

17.7%

▼ -8.6 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 22.3% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-06-24

31 HRs

25%

8 caught / 31 HRs

in top 50

#10 Max Muncy

32.3%

🟡

#14 Jake Bauers

23.3%

🔵

#22 Jorge Soler

23.2%

🔵

#24 Curtis Mead

30.3%

🔵

#46 Spencer Steer

25.6%

🟠

#48 Joc Pederson

17.2%

🟠

#49 Paul Goldschmidt

28.5%

🟠

#50 Wyatt Langford

23.6%

🟠

Missed

Mark Vientos Samuel Basallo Ketel Marte Jared Young Francisco Alvarez +18 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

CJ Abrams ×3 Ben Rice ×2 Byron Buxton ×2 Dillon Dingler ×2 Jac Caglianone ×2

❄️ Cold

Jackson Chourio 0 of 7d Ian Happ 0 of 7d Matt Olson 0 of 7d James Wood 0 of 6d Corbin Carroll 0 of 6d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 20.4%

B 19.7%

C+ 15.8%

C 12.9%

D 8.5%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-06-25

You saw the full board yesterday

The top 10 picks. Every morning.