2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Zack Littell
Zack Littell RHP WSH
111 matchups scored · 13 game days
18 HRs Allowed
16.2% HR Rate (Pool)
23.7% Overall HR/FB
7.64 FIP
5.36 xFIP
+2.28 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
1.38
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
23.7%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
94th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
79.1%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
7.64
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
99th pctile
5.36
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+2.28
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
99th pctile
16.2%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
111
Pool Matchups
18
HRs Allowed (Pool)
6
Top-15 Matchups
4
HRs to Top-15
16.2%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 14 2 6 42.9% 3.0 102.3mph 101.6mph 30.8° 399ft Up +26.7pp
Last 15 21 3 6 28.6% 2.0 101.6mph 101.6mph 30.8° 399ft Up +12.4pp
Last 30 39 5 7 17.9% 1.4 100.4mph 102.6mph 31.4° 400ft Flat +1.7pp
Batted-Ball Damage
91 tracked BBE from 111 pool matchups
100.0
116.5
72
0
104.4
28.0°
397
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-17 Jac Caglianone 106.5mph · · · ·
2026-06-17 Michael Massey 105.6mph 105.6mph 23° 430ft Yes
2026-06-17 Carter Jensen 105.5mph 96.4mph 30° 366ft Yes
2026-06-17 Isaac Collins 104.9mph · · · ·
2026-06-17 Lane Thomas 101.3mph 100.8mph 24° 411ft Yes
2026-06-12 Josh Naylor 106.6mph 106.6mph 43° 383ft Yes
2026-06-12 Dominic Canzone 106.4mph 97.8mph 32° 395ft Yes
2026-06-12 Jhonny Pereda 104.6mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
13 days · 18 total HRs
HRs Allowed
18 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-17 Carter Jensen #77 53 Nationals Park 96.4mph 30.0° 366ft
2026-06-17 Lane Thomas #89 51 Nationals Park 100.8mph 24.0° 411ft
2026-06-17 Michael Massey #95 49 Nationals Park 105.6mph 23.0° 430ft
2026-06-12 Dominic Canzone #4 80 Nationals Park 97.8mph 32.0° 395ft
2026-06-12 Colt Emerson #12 73 Nationals Park 102.2mph 33.0° 407ft
2026-06-12 Josh Naylor #138 40 Nationals Park 106.6mph 43.0° 383ft
2026-05-20 Juan Soto #22 71 Nationals Park 109.0mph 35.0° 408.0ft
2026-05-09 Jakob Marsee #121 28 loanDepot Park 100.3mph 23.0° 376.0ft
2026-05-09 Xavier Edwards #147 25 loanDepot Park 105.6mph 26.0° 422.0ft
2026-04-28 Bo Bichette #170 30 Citi Field 105.4mph 25.0° 386.0ft
2026-04-22 Matt Olson #3 79 Nationals Park 108.4mph 22.0° 376.0ft
2026-04-22 Michael Harris II #12 69 Nationals Park 104.2mph 26.0° 394.0ft
2026-04-22 Drake Baldwin #17 68 Nationals Park 101.7mph 28.0° 391.0ft
2026-04-17 Casey Schmitt #108 45 Nationals Park 108.0mph 26.0° 399.0ft
2026-04-17 Heliot Ramos #210 24 Nationals Park 107.1mph 26.0° 416.0ft
2026-04-12 Jake Bauers #23 45 American Family Field 104.7mph 24.0° 391.0ft
2026-04-12 Brice Turang #50 39 American Family Field 109.6mph 25.0° 433.0ft
2026-04-06 Willson Contreras #67 43 Nationals Park 105.3mph 33.0° 362.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Slider 341 28.7% -1.4 83.9 28.2° 3
Fastball 338 28.5% +3.3 86.3 35.3° 9
Splitter 228 19.2% +1.3 87.0 17.0° 4
Sinker 165 13.9% +4.5 84.0 19.6° 5
Sweeper 115 9.7% +0.3 83.9 16.5° 0
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
79.1%
79.1%
All Scored Matchups
111 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-17 Isaac Collins #196 30 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-17 Nick Loftin #99 49 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-17 Michael Massey #95 49 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-17 Lane Thomas #89 51 🟠 C 🔥 HOT 💥
2026-06-17 Carter Jensen #77 53 🟠 C 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-17 Jac Caglianone #57 56 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-12 Jhonny Pereda #148 39 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-12 Josh Naylor #138 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-12 Cole Young #125 43 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-12 Randy Arozarena #83 50 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-12 Julio Rodríguez #34 63 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Luke Raley #13 72 🟡 B ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-12 Colt Emerson #12 73 🟡 B 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-12 Dominic Canzone #4 80 🟢 A 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-06 Geraldo Perdomo #182 33 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-06 Ryan Waldschmidt #170 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-06 Tommy Troy #160 37 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Gabriel Moreno #87 49 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-06 Nolan Arenado #80 50 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-06 Ketel Marte #44 59 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Corbin Carroll #41 61 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-31 Freddy Fermin #251 23 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-31 Fernando Tatis Jr. #203 32 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-31 Sung-Mun Song #194 34 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-31 Xander Bogaerts #125 45 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-31 Nick Castellanos #93 51 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-31 Jackson Merrill #75 54 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-31 Manny Machado #42 64 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-31 Gavin Sheets #21 70 🟡 B 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-31 Ty France #9 78 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-20 Luis Robert Jr. #197 32 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-05-20 Marcus Semien #141 40 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-20 Bo Bichette #140 40 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-20 Carson Benge #127 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-20 Brett Baty #83 51 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-20 Francisco Lindor #78 52 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-20 Mark Vientos #58 57 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-20 Francisco Alvarez #41 63 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-20 Juan Soto #22 71 🟡 B 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-15 Taylor Ward #221 27 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-15 Dylan Beavers #191 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-15 Leody Taveras #190 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-15 Jeremiah Jackson #173 37 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-15 Coby Mayo #130 44 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-15 Gunnar Henderson #97 49 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-15 Samuel Basallo #72 56 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-15 Adley Rutschman #52 62 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-15 Pete Alonso #37 65 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-09 Heriberto Hernández #173 22 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-09 Graham Pauley #153 24 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-09 Owen Caissie #148 25 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-09 Xavier Edwards #147 25 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-05-09 Connor Norby #130 27 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-09 Jakob Marsee #121 28 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-09 Otto Lopez #95 31 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-09 Agustín Ramírez #88 32 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-09 Liam Hicks #46 41 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-03 Brandon Lockridge #213 15 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-03 David Hamilton #202 17 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-03 Luis Rengifo #150 25 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-03 William Contreras #138 26 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-03 Garrett Mitchell #119 28 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-03 Sal Frelick #92 32 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-03 Jake Bauers #67 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-03 Brice Turang #59 36 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-03 Gary Sánchez #37 39 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-28 Luis Robert Jr. #200 21 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-28 Jorge Polanco #189 24 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-28 Marcus Semien #188 24 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-28 Mark Vientos #184 27 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-28 Bo Bichette #170 30 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-04-28 Brett Baty #155 34 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-28 Carson Benge #152 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-28 Francisco Lindor #120 42 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-28 Francisco Alvarez #94 46 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-22 Ozzie Albies #118 39 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-22 Mauricio Dubón #97 44 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-22 Mike Yastrzemski #82 46 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-22 Austin Riley #46 56 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-22 Ronald Acuña Jr. #35 59 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-22 Dominic Smith #29 61 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-22 Drake Baldwin #17 68 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-04-22 Michael Harris II #12 69 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM 💥
2026-04-22 Matt Olson #3 79 🟡 B ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-04-17 Luis Arraez #226 21 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-17 Patrick Bailey #220 22 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-17 Heliot Ramos #210 24 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-04-17 Harrison Bader #207 25 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-17 Jung Hoo Lee #183 30 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-17 Matt Chapman #153 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-17 Rafael Devers #124 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-17 Casey Schmitt #108 45 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-04-17 Willy Adames #90 50 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-12 Brandon Lockridge #126 27 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-12 Garrett Mitchell #116 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-12 Joey Ortiz #81 34 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-12 Sal Frelick #70 33 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-12 David Hamilton #57 28 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-12 Brice Turang #50 39 ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-04-12 William Contreras #36 39 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-12 Jake Bauers #23 45 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-04-12 Christian Yelich #17 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-06 Victor Scott II #177 22 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-06 Masyn Winn #168 26 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-06 Nolan Arenado #146 28 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-06 Lars Nootbaar #130 33 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-04-06 Alec Burleson #108 37 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-06 Brendan Donovan #98 33 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-06 Willson Contreras #67 43 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-04-06 Ivan Herrera #55 40 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-06 Nolan Gorman #35 37 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
Six home runs to freedom

Zack Littell's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

111 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 516

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.