Zack Littell
RHP
WSH
18
HRs Allowed
16.2%
HR Rate (Pool)
23.7%
Overall HR/FB
7.64
FIP
5.36
xFIP
+2.28
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
1.38
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
23.7%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
94th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
79.1%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
7.64
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
99th pctile
5.36
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+2.28
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
99th pctile
16.2%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
111
Pool Matchups
18
HRs Allowed (Pool)
6
Top-15 Matchups
4
HRs to Top-15
16.2%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 42.9% | 3.0 | 102.3mph | 101.6mph | 30.8° | 399ft | Up +26.7pp |
| Last 15 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 28.6% | 2.0 | 101.6mph | 101.6mph | 30.8° | 399ft | Up +12.4pp |
| Last 30 | 39 | 5 | 7 | 17.9% | 1.4 | 100.4mph | 102.6mph | 31.4° | 400ft | Flat +1.7pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
100.0
Avg Max EV
116.5
Max EV Allowed
72
Hard-Hit Proxy · 79.1%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
104.4
Avg HR EV
28.0°
Avg HR Launch
397
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Jac Caglianone | 106.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Michael Massey | 105.6mph | 105.6mph | 23° | 430ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-17 | Carter Jensen | 105.5mph | 96.4mph | 30° | 366ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-17 | Isaac Collins | 104.9mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Lane Thomas | 101.3mph | 100.8mph | 24° | 411ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-12 | Josh Naylor | 106.6mph | 106.6mph | 43° | 383ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-12 | Dominic Canzone | 106.4mph | 97.8mph | 32° | 395ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-12 | Jhonny Pereda | 104.6mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Carter Jensen | #77 | 53 | Nationals Park | 96.4mph | 30.0° | 366ft |
| 2026-06-17 | Lane Thomas | #89 | 51 | Nationals Park | 100.8mph | 24.0° | 411ft |
| 2026-06-17 | Michael Massey | #95 | 49 | Nationals Park | 105.6mph | 23.0° | 430ft |
| 2026-06-12 | Dominic Canzone | #4 | 80 | Nationals Park | 97.8mph | 32.0° | 395ft |
| 2026-06-12 | Colt Emerson | #12 | 73 | Nationals Park | 102.2mph | 33.0° | 407ft |
| 2026-06-12 | Josh Naylor | #138 | 40 | Nationals Park | 106.6mph | 43.0° | 383ft |
| 2026-05-20 | Juan Soto | #22 | 71 | Nationals Park | 109.0mph | 35.0° | 408.0ft |
| 2026-05-09 | Jakob Marsee | #121 | 28 | loanDepot Park | 100.3mph | 23.0° | 376.0ft |
| 2026-05-09 | Xavier Edwards | #147 | 25 | loanDepot Park | 105.6mph | 26.0° | 422.0ft |
| 2026-04-28 | Bo Bichette | #170 | 30 | Citi Field | 105.4mph | 25.0° | 386.0ft |
| 2026-04-22 | Matt Olson | #3 | 79 | Nationals Park | 108.4mph | 22.0° | 376.0ft |
| 2026-04-22 | Michael Harris II | #12 | 69 | Nationals Park | 104.2mph | 26.0° | 394.0ft |
| 2026-04-22 | Drake Baldwin | #17 | 68 | Nationals Park | 101.7mph | 28.0° | 391.0ft |
| 2026-04-17 | Casey Schmitt | #108 | 45 | Nationals Park | 108.0mph | 26.0° | 399.0ft |
| 2026-04-17 | Heliot Ramos | #210 | 24 | Nationals Park | 107.1mph | 26.0° | 416.0ft |
| 2026-04-12 | Jake Bauers | #23 | 45 | American Family Field | 104.7mph | 24.0° | 391.0ft |
| 2026-04-12 | Brice Turang | #50 | 39 | American Family Field | 109.6mph | 25.0° | 433.0ft |
| 2026-04-06 | Willson Contreras | #67 | 43 | Nationals Park | 105.3mph | 33.0° | 362.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 341 | 28.7% | -1.4 | 83.9 | 28.2° | 3 |
| Fastball | 338 | 28.5% | +3.3 | 86.3 | 35.3° | 9 |
| Splitter | 228 | 19.2% | +1.3 | 87.0 | 17.0° | 4 |
| Sinker | 165 | 13.9% | +4.5 | 84.0 | 19.6° | 5 |
| Sweeper | 115 | 9.7% | +0.3 | 83.9 | 16.5° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
79.1%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Isaac Collins | #196 | 30 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Nick Loftin | #99 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-17 | Michael Massey | #95 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-17 | Lane Thomas | #89 | 51 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | 💥 |
| 2026-06-17 | Carter Jensen | #77 | 53 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-06-17 | Jac Caglianone | #57 | 56 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Jhonny Pereda | #148 | 39 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Josh Naylor | #138 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-12 | Cole Young | #125 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Randy Arozarena | #83 | 50 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Julio Rodríguez | #34 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Luke Raley | #13 | 72 | 🟡 B | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-12 | Colt Emerson | #12 | 73 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-06-12 | Dominic Canzone | #4 | 80 | 🟢 A | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-06-06 | Geraldo Perdomo | #182 | 33 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Ryan Waldschmidt | #170 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Tommy Troy | #160 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Gabriel Moreno | #87 | 49 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Nolan Arenado | #80 | 50 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Ketel Marte | #44 | 59 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-06 | Corbin Carroll | #41 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Freddy Fermin | #251 | 23 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | #203 | 32 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Sung-Mun Song | #194 | 34 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Xander Bogaerts | #125 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Nick Castellanos | #93 | 51 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Jackson Merrill | #75 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Manny Machado | #42 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Gavin Sheets | #21 | 70 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-31 | Ty France | #9 | 78 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Luis Robert Jr. | #197 | 32 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Marcus Semien | #141 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Bo Bichette | #140 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Carson Benge | #127 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Brett Baty | #83 | 51 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Francisco Lindor | #78 | 52 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Mark Vientos | #58 | 57 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Francisco Alvarez | #41 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-20 | Juan Soto | #22 | 71 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-15 | Taylor Ward | #221 | 27 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Dylan Beavers | #191 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Leody Taveras | #190 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Jeremiah Jackson | #173 | 37 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Coby Mayo | #130 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Gunnar Henderson | #97 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Samuel Basallo | #72 | 56 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Adley Rutschman | #52 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Pete Alonso | #37 | 65 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Heriberto Hernández | #173 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Graham Pauley | #153 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Owen Caissie | #148 | 25 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Xavier Edwards | #147 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-09 | Connor Norby | #130 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Jakob Marsee | #121 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-09 | Otto Lopez | #95 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Agustín Ramírez | #88 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Liam Hicks | #46 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Brandon Lockridge | #213 | 15 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-03 | David Hamilton | #202 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Luis Rengifo | #150 | 25 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | William Contreras | #138 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Garrett Mitchell | #119 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Sal Frelick | #92 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Jake Bauers | #67 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Brice Turang | #59 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Gary Sánchez | #37 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Luis Robert Jr. | #200 | 21 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Jorge Polanco | #189 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Marcus Semien | #188 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Mark Vientos | #184 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Bo Bichette | #170 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-28 | Brett Baty | #155 | 34 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Carson Benge | #152 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Francisco Lindor | #120 | 42 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Francisco Alvarez | #94 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-22 | Ozzie Albies | #118 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-22 | Mauricio Dubón | #97 | 44 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-22 | Mike Yastrzemski | #82 | 46 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-22 | Austin Riley | #46 | 56 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-22 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | #35 | 59 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-22 | Dominic Smith | #29 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-22 | Drake Baldwin | #17 | 68 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-22 | Michael Harris II | #12 | 69 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-22 | Matt Olson | #3 | 79 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-17 | Luis Arraez | #226 | 21 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Patrick Bailey | #220 | 22 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Heliot Ramos | #210 | 24 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-17 | Harrison Bader | #207 | 25 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Jung Hoo Lee | #183 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Matt Chapman | #153 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Rafael Devers | #124 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-17 | Casey Schmitt | #108 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-17 | Willy Adames | #90 | 50 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-12 | Brandon Lockridge | #126 | 27 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-12 | Garrett Mitchell | #116 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-12 | Joey Ortiz | #81 | 34 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-12 | Sal Frelick | #70 | 33 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-12 | David Hamilton | #57 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-12 | Brice Turang | #50 | 39 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-04-12 | William Contreras | #36 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-12 | Jake Bauers | #23 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-12 | Christian Yelich | #17 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Victor Scott II | #177 | 22 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Masyn Winn | #168 | 26 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Nolan Arenado | #146 | 28 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Lars Nootbaar | #130 | 33 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Alec Burleson | #108 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Brendan Donovan | #98 | 33 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Willson Contreras | #67 | 43 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-06 | Ivan Herrera | #55 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-06 | Nolan Gorman | #35 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |