Chase Burns
RHP
CIN
12
HRs Allowed
8.8%
HR Rate (Pool)
19.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.71
FIP
3.39
xFIP
+0.33
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
0.75
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
19.6%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
88th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
61.2%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
3.71
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
37th pctile
3.39
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.33
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
67th pctile
8.8%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
137
Pool Matchups
12
HRs Allowed (Pool)
10
Top-15 Matchups
3
HRs to Top-15
8.8%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 11.8% | 1.0 | 93.6mph | 106.2mph | 37.5° | 386ft | Up +3.0pp |
| Last 15 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 8.3% | 0.67 | 93.4mph | 106.2mph | 37.5° | 386ft | Flat -0.5pp |
| Last 30 | 38 | 5 | 4 | 10.5% | 0.8 | 94.0mph | 103.9mph | 32.0° | 382ft | Flat +1.7pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
95.6
Avg Max EV
113.1
Max EV Allowed
71
Hard-Hit Proxy · 61.2%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
104.8
Avg HR EV
29.2°
Avg HR Launch
391
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Brandon Lowe | 107.8mph | 107.4mph | 34° | 396ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-27 | Endy Rodríguez | 106.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-27 | Ryan O'Hearn | 103.9mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Ben Rice | 105.1mph | 105.1mph | 41° | 375ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-21 | Anthony Volpe | 102.6mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Bo Bichette | 105.4mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Jackson Merrill | 104.7mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Manny Machado | 102.3mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Brandon Lowe | #43 | 56 | PNC Park | 107.4mph | 34.0° | 396ft |
| 2026-06-21 | Ben Rice | #3 | 79 | Yankee Stadium | 105.1mph | 41.0° | 375ft |
| 2026-06-03 | Vinnie Pasquantino | #159 | 37 | Great American Ball Park | 101.0mph | 30.0° | 377ft |
| 2026-06-03 | Nick Loftin | #209 | 29 | Great American Ball Park | 102.0mph | 23.0° | 381ft |
| 2026-05-26 | Juan Soto | #7 | 75 | Citi Field | 103.0mph | 31.0° | 384.0ft |
| 2026-05-19 | Trea Turner | #155 | 36 | Citizens Bank Park | 104.2mph | 29.0° | 409.0ft |
| 2026-04-28 | Edouard Julien | #52 | 57 | Great American Ball Park | 107.1mph | 28.0° | 403.0ft |
| 2026-04-21 | Jonathan Aranda | #106 | 39 | Tropicana Field | 103.8mph | 21.0° | 366.0ft |
| 2026-04-10 | Zach Neto | #13 | 56 | Great American Ball Park | 104.7mph | 33.0° | 417.0ft |
| 2026-04-10 | Jorge Soler | #31 | 49 | Great American Ball Park | 110.4mph | 26.0° | 418.0ft |
| 2026-04-10 | Josh Lowe | #108 | 40 | Great American Ball Park | 105.4mph | 22.0° | 356.0ft |
| 2026-04-05 | Adolis Garcia | #163 | 35 | Globe Life Field | 103.4mph | 32.0° | 405.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 821 | 56.3% | -1.0 | 83.7 | 31.1° | 6 |
| Slider | 539 | 37.0% | -2.1 | 83.3 | 8.2° | 3 |
| Changeup | 95 | 6.5% | +8.9 | 75.4 | 17.4° | 2 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
61.2%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Jared Triolo | #239 | 12 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-27 | Jake Mangum | #237 | 14 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-27 | Nick Gonzales | #230 | 21 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-27 | Marcell Ozuna | #166 | 36 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-27 | Ryan O'Hearn | #153 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-27 | Tyler Callihan | #119 | 43 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-27 | Endy Rodríguez | #110 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-27 | Bryan Reynolds | #87 | 48 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-27 | Brandon Lowe | #43 | 56 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-21 | Anthony Volpe | #172 | 36 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Austin Wells | #159 | 38 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-06-21 | José Caballero | #120 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Cody Bellinger | #66 | 57 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Ryan McMahon | #62 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Jasson Domínguez | #52 | 59 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Spencer Jones | #29 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Ben Rice | #3 | 79 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-15 | Brett Baty | #117 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Bo Bichette | #74 | 47 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Carson Benge | #60 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Marcus Semien | #54 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-15 | MJ Melendez | #43 | 57 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Jared Young | #21 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Juan Soto | #18 | 67 | 🔵 C+ | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Bryce Johnson | #227 | 14 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Freddy Fermin | #170 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Jackson Merrill | #147 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Manny Machado | #70 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Gavin Sheets | #63 | 53 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Nick Loftin | #209 | 29 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-06-03 | Isaac Collins | #183 | 34 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Kyle Isbel | #178 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Vinnie Pasquantino | #159 | 37 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-06-03 | Carter Jensen | #85 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Jac Caglianone | #84 | 49 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Salvador Perez | #58 | 55 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Michael Massey | #44 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Bobby Witt Jr. | #30 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Luis Torrens | #231 | 23 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-26 | A.J. Ewing | #223 | 26 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Carson Benge | #162 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Marcus Semien | #161 | 38 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Jared Young | #137 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Brett Baty | #106 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Bo Bichette | #99 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-26 | MJ Melendez | #90 | 46 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-26 | Juan Soto | #7 | 75 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-19 | Edmundo Sosa | #207 | 28 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Rafael Marchán | #202 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Trea Turner | #155 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-19 | Alec Bohm | #149 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Adolis García | #107 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Brandon Marsh | #104 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Justin Crawford | #95 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Bryson Stott | #55 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-19 | Bryce Harper | #9 | 79 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-14 | Jorbit Vivas | #164 | 17 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-14 | Nasim Nuñez | #160 | 19 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-14 | Jacob Young | #128 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-14 | Drew Millas | #99 | 34 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-14 | Brady House | #54 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-14 | Luis García Jr. | #53 | 47 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-14 | Daylen Lile | #31 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-14 | CJ Abrams | #16 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-14 | James Wood | #4 | 78 | 🟡 B | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Jose Altuve | #61 | 37 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Joey Loperfido | #54 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Yainer Diaz | #51 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Cam Smith | #36 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Brice Matthews | #32 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Carlos Correa | #31 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Isaac Paredes | #24 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Yordan Alvarez | #4 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Christian Walker | #3 | 60 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Nick Gonzales | #242 | 4 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Konnor Griffin | #226 | 13 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Marcell Ozuna | #218 | 14 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Bryan Reynolds | #212 | 15 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Nick Yorke | #207 | 16 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Ryan O'Hearn | #201 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Spencer Horwitz | #192 | 19 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Oneil Cruz | #137 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Brandon Lowe | #118 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Brenton Doyle | #90 | 47 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Troy Johnston | #89 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Kyle Karros | #78 | 51 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Ezequiel Tovar | #72 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Willi Castro | #65 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-28 | TJ Rumfield | #64 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Edouard Julien | #52 | 57 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-28 | Mickey Moniak | #5 | 80 | 🟢 A | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-28 | Hunter Goodman | #3 | 82 | 🟢 A | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Taylor Walls | #226 | 15 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Chandler Simpson | #222 | 16 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Ben Williamson | #213 | 18 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Nick Fortes | #210 | 20 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Cedric Mullins | #193 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Yandy Díaz | #134 | 34 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Jake Fraley | #108 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Jonathan Aranda | #106 | 39 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-04-21 | Junior Caminero | #87 | 44 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Drew Gilbert | #92 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Luis Arraez | #76 | 44 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Patrick Bailey | #71 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Will Brennan | #70 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Jung Hoo Lee | #46 | 53 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Matt Chapman | #45 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Rafael Devers | #26 | 64 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Casey Schmitt | #18 | 68 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-16 | Willy Adames | #8 | 73 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Adam Frazier | #214 | 29 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Nolan Schanuel | #186 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Josh Lowe | #108 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-10 | Logan O'Hoppe | #102 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Mike Trout | #52 | 54 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Yoán Moncada | #37 | 55 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Jorge Soler | #31 | 49 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-10 | Jo Adell | #30 | 60 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Zach Neto | #13 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-05 | Josh Smith | #206 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Marcus Semien | #187 | 27 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Jonah Heim | #182 | 25 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Josh Jung | #167 | 29 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Kyle Higashioka | #164 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Adolis Garcia | #163 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-04-05 | Jake Burger | #140 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Wyatt Langford | #121 | 39 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-05 | Corey Seager | #95 | 43 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Nick Gonzales | #181 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Jared Triolo | #151 | 38 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Joey Bart | #140 | 37 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Henry Davis | #133 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Spencer Horwitz | #106 | 44 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Andrew McCutchen | #99 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Tommy Pham | #98 | 38 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Bryan Reynolds | #65 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-30 | Oneil Cruz | #32 | 52 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |