2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs
Dustin May
Dustin May RHP STL
118 matchups scored · 14 game days
10 HRs Allowed
8.5% HR Rate (Pool)
14.5% Overall HR/FB
3.72 FIP
4.04 xFIP
-0.32 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
0.71
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
14.5%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
69th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
80.0%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
3.72
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
37th pctile
4.04
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.32
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
31th pctile
8.5%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
118
Pool Matchups
10
HRs Allowed (Pool)
2
Top-15 Matchups
1
HRs to Top-15
8.5%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 12 2 3 25.0% 1.5 97.2mph 103.0mph 29.7° 405ft Up +16.5pp
Last 15 19 3 3 15.8% 1.0 97.3mph 103.0mph 29.7° 405ft Up +7.3pp
Last 30 37 5 3 8.1% 0.6 97.2mph 103.0mph 29.7° 405ft Flat -0.4pp
Batted-Ball Damage
105 tracked BBE from 118 pool matchups
99.1
114.7
84
0
102.1
28.7°
378
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-21 Jac Caglianone 108.2mph 108.1mph 34° 426ft Yes
2026-06-21 Nick Loftin 104.0mph 101.3mph 30° 416ft Yes
2026-06-21 Michael Massey 103.3mph · · · ·
2026-06-21 Carter Jensen 99.7mph 99.7mph 25° 374ft Yes
2026-06-15 Gavin Sheets 104.9mph · · · ·
2026-06-15 Jackson Merrill 102.5mph · · · ·
2026-06-09 Jared Young 105.6mph · · · ·
2026-06-09 Marcus Semien 101.0mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
14 days · 10 total HRs
HRs Allowed
10 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-21 Jac Caglianone #94 48 Kauffman Stadium 108.1mph 34.0° 426ft
2026-06-21 Carter Jensen #148 40 Kauffman Stadium 99.7mph 25.0° 374ft
2026-06-21 Nick Loftin #199 30 Kauffman Stadium 101.3mph 30.0° 416ft
2026-05-21 Brandon Lowe #11 62 Busch Stadium 96.0mph 39.0° 342.0ft
2026-05-21 Henry Davis #85 29 Busch Stadium 103.7mph 22.0° 375.0ft
2026-05-09 Manny Machado #159 24 Petco Park 105.3mph 26.0° ·
2026-04-21 Jakob Marsee #223 16 loanDepot Park 110.9mph 20.0° 351.0ft
2026-04-04 Kerry Carpenter #50 47 Comerica Park 97.9mph 28.0° 359.0ft
2026-04-04 Zach McKinstry #107 35 Comerica Park 102.2mph 29.0° 399.0ft
2026-04-04 Gleyber Torres #125 32 Comerica Park 96.1mph 34.0° 364.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Fastball 340 26.3% -1.1 83.8 28.0° 2
Cutter 283 21.9% -0.9 82.1 10.9° 1
Sweeper 256 19.8% +0.7 79.3 11.5° 1
Sinker 232 17.9% -2.1 85.0 5.5° 1
Changeup 93 7.2% +3.5 82.1 10.0° 2
Curveball 90 7.0% +2.7 85.0 -2.9° 0
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
80.0%
80.0%
All Scored Matchups
118 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-21 Isaac Collins #221 24 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-21 Nick Loftin #199 30 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-21 Lane Thomas #170 36 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-21 Carter Jensen #148 40 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-21 Michael Massey #138 42 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-21 Jac Caglianone #94 48 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-15 Xander Bogaerts #128 32 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-15 Jackson Merrill #120 36 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-15 Ty France #108 38 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-15 Manny Machado #93 42 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-15 Gavin Sheets #65 49 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-15 Rodolfo Durán #29 60 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-09 Brett Baty #209 25 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-09 Bo Bichette #177 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-09 Marcus Semien #89 50 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-09 Carson Benge #88 50 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-09 MJ Melendez #57 54 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-09 Jared Young #48 57 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-09 Juan Soto #27 62 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-02 Alejandro Osuna #248 11 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-02 Nicky Lopez #201 30 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-02 Ezequiel Duran #170 36 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-02 Kyle Higashioka #159 38 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-02 Evan Carter #156 38 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-02 Josh Jung #128 42 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-02 Jake Burger #78 51 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-02 Brandon Nimmo #66 54 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-02 Joc Pederson #49 58 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-27 David Hamilton #263 14 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-27 Luis Rengifo #249 21 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-27 Sal Frelick #220 29 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-27 Brice Turang #139 41 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-27 William Contreras #137 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-27 Jackson Chourio #134 43 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-27 Garrett Mitchell #90 49 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-27 Christian Yelich #67 56 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-27 Jake Bauers #40 63 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-21 Jared Triolo #114 8 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-21 Jake Mangum #113 9 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-21 Konnor Griffin #90 27 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-21 Henry Davis #85 29 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-21 Spencer Horwitz #84 29 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-21 Bryan Reynolds #79 30 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-21 Marcell Ozuna #56 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-21 Oneil Cruz #18 55 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-21 Brandon Lowe #11 62 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-15 Kyle Isbel #212 29 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-15 Maikel Garcia #194 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-15 Isaac Collins #150 41 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-15 Vinnie Pasquantino #139 43 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-15 Salvador Perez #128 45 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-15 Carter Jensen #96 50 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-15 Jac Caglianone #79 55 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-15 Bobby Witt Jr. #63 59 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-15 Michael Massey #54 62 🔵 C+ 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-09 Jake Cronenworth #255 8 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-09 Fernando Tatis Jr. #230 14 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-09 Jackson Merrill #226 15 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-09 Xander Bogaerts #218 17 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-09 Nick Castellanos #199 19 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-09 Ramón Laureano #198 19 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-09 Manny Machado #159 24 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-05-09 Gavin Sheets #145 26 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-09 Miguel Andujar #128 28 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-03 Hyeseong Kim #182 21 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-03 Alex Freeland #130 27 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-03 Will Smith #97 31 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-03 Max Muncy #93 32 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-03 Andy Pages #86 33 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-03 Kyle Tucker #85 33 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-03 Freddie Freeman #78 34 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-03 Teoscar Hernández #63 36 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-03 Shohei Ohtani #21 43 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-27 Nick Gonzales #143 5 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-27 Spencer Horwitz #114 23 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-27 Nick Yorke #110 24 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-27 Konnor Griffin #109 24 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-04-27 Bryan Reynolds #99 26 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-27 Marcell Ozuna #87 31 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-27 Ryan O'Hearn #86 31 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-27 Brandon Lowe #51 44 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-27 Oneil Cruz #24 57 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-21 Jakob Marsee #223 16 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-04-21 Heriberto Hernández #203 22 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-21 Graham Pauley #194 24 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-21 Liam Hicks #155 31 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-21 Agustín Ramírez #146 32 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-21 Xavier Edwards #124 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-21 Connor Norby #98 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-21 Otto Lopez #56 51 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-21 Owen Caissie #44 55 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-10 Caleb Durbin #217 27 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-10 Masataka Yoshida #188 28 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-10 Ceddanne Rafaela #153 35 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-10 Jarren Duran #145 38 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-10 Carlos Narváez #122 37 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-10 Trevor Story #121 37 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-10 Marcelo Mayer #93 37 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-10 Willson Contreras #43 43 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-10 Wilyer Abreu #24 46 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-04 Gleyber Torres #125 32 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-04-04 Zach McKinstry #107 35 ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-04-04 Javier Baez #106 30 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-04 Colt Keith #103 35 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-04 Wenceel Perez #100 38 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-04 Dillon Dingler #99 34 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-04 Spencer Torkelson #68 45 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-04 Kerry Carpenter #50 47 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-04-04 Riley Greene #25 49 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-03-29 Hunter Feduccia #181 22 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-29 Chandler Simpson #180 9 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-29 Jake Fraley #121 30 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-29 Richie Palacios #115 27 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-29 Cedric Mullins #111 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-03-29 Jonathan Aranda #88 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-29 Yandy Díaz #61 38 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-03-29 Junior Caminero #24 51 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-03-29 Carson Williams #7 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
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