Dustin May
RHP
STL
10
HRs Allowed
8.5%
HR Rate (Pool)
14.5%
Overall HR/FB
3.72
FIP
4.04
xFIP
-0.32
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
0.71
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
14.5%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
69th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
80.0%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
3.72
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
37th pctile
4.04
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.32
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
31th pctile
8.5%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
118
Pool Matchups
10
HRs Allowed (Pool)
2
Top-15 Matchups
1
HRs to Top-15
8.5%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 25.0% | 1.5 | 97.2mph | 103.0mph | 29.7° | 405ft | Up +16.5pp |
| Last 15 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 15.8% | 1.0 | 97.3mph | 103.0mph | 29.7° | 405ft | Up +7.3pp |
| Last 30 | 37 | 5 | 3 | 8.1% | 0.6 | 97.2mph | 103.0mph | 29.7° | 405ft | Flat -0.4pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
99.1
Avg Max EV
114.7
Max EV Allowed
84
Hard-Hit Proxy · 80.0%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
102.1
Avg HR EV
28.7°
Avg HR Launch
378
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Jac Caglianone | 108.2mph | 108.1mph | 34° | 426ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-21 | Nick Loftin | 104.0mph | 101.3mph | 30° | 416ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-21 | Michael Massey | 103.3mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Carter Jensen | 99.7mph | 99.7mph | 25° | 374ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-15 | Gavin Sheets | 104.9mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Jackson Merrill | 102.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Jared Young | 105.6mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Marcus Semien | 101.0mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Jac Caglianone | #94 | 48 | Kauffman Stadium | 108.1mph | 34.0° | 426ft |
| 2026-06-21 | Carter Jensen | #148 | 40 | Kauffman Stadium | 99.7mph | 25.0° | 374ft |
| 2026-06-21 | Nick Loftin | #199 | 30 | Kauffman Stadium | 101.3mph | 30.0° | 416ft |
| 2026-05-21 | Brandon Lowe | #11 | 62 | Busch Stadium | 96.0mph | 39.0° | 342.0ft |
| 2026-05-21 | Henry Davis | #85 | 29 | Busch Stadium | 103.7mph | 22.0° | 375.0ft |
| 2026-05-09 | Manny Machado | #159 | 24 | Petco Park | 105.3mph | 26.0° | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Jakob Marsee | #223 | 16 | loanDepot Park | 110.9mph | 20.0° | 351.0ft |
| 2026-04-04 | Kerry Carpenter | #50 | 47 | Comerica Park | 97.9mph | 28.0° | 359.0ft |
| 2026-04-04 | Zach McKinstry | #107 | 35 | Comerica Park | 102.2mph | 29.0° | 399.0ft |
| 2026-04-04 | Gleyber Torres | #125 | 32 | Comerica Park | 96.1mph | 34.0° | 364.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 340 | 26.3% | -1.1 | 83.8 | 28.0° | 2 |
| Cutter | 283 | 21.9% | -0.9 | 82.1 | 10.9° | 1 |
| Sweeper | 256 | 19.8% | +0.7 | 79.3 | 11.5° | 1 |
| Sinker | 232 | 17.9% | -2.1 | 85.0 | 5.5° | 1 |
| Changeup | 93 | 7.2% | +3.5 | 82.1 | 10.0° | 2 |
| Curveball | 90 | 7.0% | +2.7 | 85.0 | -2.9° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
80.0%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Isaac Collins | #221 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Nick Loftin | #199 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-06-21 | Lane Thomas | #170 | 36 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Carter Jensen | #148 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-06-21 | Michael Massey | #138 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-21 | Jac Caglianone | #94 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-15 | Xander Bogaerts | #128 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Jackson Merrill | #120 | 36 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Ty France | #108 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Manny Machado | #93 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Gavin Sheets | #65 | 49 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-15 | Rodolfo Durán | #29 | 60 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Brett Baty | #209 | 25 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Bo Bichette | #177 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Marcus Semien | #89 | 50 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Carson Benge | #88 | 50 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-09 | MJ Melendez | #57 | 54 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Jared Young | #48 | 57 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Juan Soto | #27 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Alejandro Osuna | #248 | 11 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Nicky Lopez | #201 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Ezequiel Duran | #170 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Kyle Higashioka | #159 | 38 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Evan Carter | #156 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Josh Jung | #128 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Jake Burger | #78 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Brandon Nimmo | #66 | 54 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-02 | Joc Pederson | #49 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-27 | David Hamilton | #263 | 14 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Luis Rengifo | #249 | 21 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Sal Frelick | #220 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Brice Turang | #139 | 41 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-27 | William Contreras | #137 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Jackson Chourio | #134 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Garrett Mitchell | #90 | 49 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Christian Yelich | #67 | 56 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-27 | Jake Bauers | #40 | 63 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Jared Triolo | #114 | 8 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Jake Mangum | #113 | 9 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Konnor Griffin | #90 | 27 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Henry Davis | #85 | 29 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-21 | Spencer Horwitz | #84 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Bryan Reynolds | #79 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Marcell Ozuna | #56 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Oneil Cruz | #18 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-21 | Brandon Lowe | #11 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kyle Isbel | #212 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Maikel Garcia | #194 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Isaac Collins | #150 | 41 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Vinnie Pasquantino | #139 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Salvador Perez | #128 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Carter Jensen | #96 | 50 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Jac Caglianone | #79 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Bobby Witt Jr. | #63 | 59 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-15 | Michael Massey | #54 | 62 | 🔵 C+ | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Jake Cronenworth | #255 | 8 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | #230 | 14 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Jackson Merrill | #226 | 15 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Xander Bogaerts | #218 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Nick Castellanos | #199 | 19 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Ramón Laureano | #198 | 19 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Manny Machado | #159 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-09 | Gavin Sheets | #145 | 26 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-09 | Miguel Andujar | #128 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Hyeseong Kim | #182 | 21 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Alex Freeland | #130 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Will Smith | #97 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Max Muncy | #93 | 32 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Andy Pages | #86 | 33 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Kyle Tucker | #85 | 33 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Freddie Freeman | #78 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Teoscar Hernández | #63 | 36 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-03 | Shohei Ohtani | #21 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Nick Gonzales | #143 | 5 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Spencer Horwitz | #114 | 23 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Nick Yorke | #110 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Konnor Griffin | #109 | 24 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Bryan Reynolds | #99 | 26 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Marcell Ozuna | #87 | 31 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Ryan O'Hearn | #86 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Brandon Lowe | #51 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-27 | Oneil Cruz | #24 | 57 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Jakob Marsee | #223 | 16 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-21 | Heriberto Hernández | #203 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Graham Pauley | #194 | 24 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Liam Hicks | #155 | 31 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Agustín Ramírez | #146 | 32 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Xavier Edwards | #124 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Connor Norby | #98 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Otto Lopez | #56 | 51 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-21 | Owen Caissie | #44 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Caleb Durbin | #217 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Masataka Yoshida | #188 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Ceddanne Rafaela | #153 | 35 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Jarren Duran | #145 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Carlos Narváez | #122 | 37 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Trevor Story | #121 | 37 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Marcelo Mayer | #93 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Willson Contreras | #43 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Wilyer Abreu | #24 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Gleyber Torres | #125 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-04 | Zach McKinstry | #107 | 35 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-04-04 | Javier Baez | #106 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Colt Keith | #103 | 35 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Wenceel Perez | #100 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Dillon Dingler | #99 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Spencer Torkelson | #68 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-04 | Kerry Carpenter | #50 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-04 | Riley Greene | #25 | 49 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Hunter Feduccia | #181 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Chandler Simpson | #180 | 9 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Jake Fraley | #121 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Richie Palacios | #115 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Cedric Mullins | #111 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Jonathan Aranda | #88 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Yandy Díaz | #61 | 38 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Junior Caminero | #24 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-29 | Carson Williams | #7 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |