Paul Skenes
RHP
PIT
13
HRs Allowed
9.2%
HR Rate (Pool)
14.7%
Overall HR/FB
2.89
FIP
3.13
xFIP
-0.24
FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot
?Pitcher's HR-relevant profile. Red = HR-favorable for batters, blue = HR-resistant. Same vocabulary as batter cards.
Pool + today context
0.81
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
14.7%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
70th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
68.5%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
2.89
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
14th pctile
3.13
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
-0.24
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
36th pctile
9.2%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
141
Pool Matchups
13
HRs Allowed (Pool)
4
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
9.2%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
| Window | Matchups | Game Days | HR | HR Rate | HR/Game | Avg Max EV | Avg HR EV | Avg HR LA | Avg HR Dist | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 5.9% | 0.5 | 93.9mph | 104.9mph | 18.0° | 341ft | Down -3.3pp |
| Last 15 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 8.0% | 0.67 | 96.1mph | 103.6mph | 22.5° | 382ft | Flat -1.2pp |
| Last 30 | 51 | 6 | 5 | 9.8% | 0.83 | 96.6mph | 103.5mph | 24.0° | 388ft | Flat +0.6pp |
Batted-Ball Damage
96.7
Avg Max EV
114.0
Max EV Allowed
87
Hard-Hit Proxy · 68.5%
0
Barrel Flags · 0.0%
104.7
Avg HR EV
27.8°
Avg HR Launch
391
Avg HR Distance
| Date | Batter | Max EV | HR EV | HR LA | HR Dist | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Tyler Stephenson | 104.6mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-26 | Matt McLain | 104.1mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-26 | Nathaniel Lowe | 100.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-20 | Jake McCarthy | 104.9mph | 104.9mph | 18° | 341ft | Yes |
| 2026-06-20 | Ezequiel Tovar | 103.9mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-20 | Sterlin Thompson | 101.5mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Jakob Marsee | 105.6mph | · | · | · | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Liam Hicks | 105.5mph | · | · | · | · |
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
HRs Allowed
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Stadium | EV | Angle | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Jake McCarthy | #173 | 34 | Coors Field | 104.9mph | 18.0° | 341ft |
| 2026-06-14 | Joe Mack | #225 | 19 | PNC Park | 102.3mph | 27.0° | 424ft |
| 2026-06-09 | Andy Pages | #68 | 52 | PNC Park | 105.0mph | 25.0° | 410ft |
| 2026-06-03 | Isaac Paredes | #207 | 30 | Minute Maid Park | 101.4mph | 25.0° | 363ft |
| 2026-05-28 | Ian Happ | #34 | 46 | PNC Park | 103.7mph | 25.0° | 403.0ft |
| 2026-05-23 | George Springer | #219 | 34 | Rogers Centre | 106.8mph | 25.0° | 396.0ft |
| 2026-05-23 | Tyler Heineman | #288 | 10 | Rogers Centre | 100.1mph | 31.0° | 391.0ft |
| 2026-05-17 | Bryce Harper | #54 | 61 | PNC Park | 103.7mph | 35.0° | 401.0ft |
| 2026-05-17 | Bryson Stott | #179 | 37 | PNC Park | 108.7mph | 21.0° | 395.0ft |
| 2026-04-30 | Jordan Walker | #62 | 35 | PNC Park | 107.0mph | 40.0° | 383.0ft |
| 2026-04-30 | JJ Wetherholt | #86 | 28 | PNC Park | 107.7mph | 28.0° | 391.0ft |
| 2026-04-18 | Cedric Mullins | #263 | 11 | PNC Park | 103.9mph | 36.0° | 403.0ft |
| 2026-04-07 | Xander Bogaerts | #235 | 23 | PNC Park | 105.3mph | 26.0° | 383.0ft |
Pitch Arsenal
| Pitch | Pitches | Usage | RV/100 | Avg EV | Avg LA | HRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 575 | 38.1% | -1.9 | 83.1 | 33.1° | 5 |
| Changeup | 251 | 16.6% | +0.9 | 77.5 | 13.5° | 1 |
| Sweeper | 237 | 15.7% | -1.4 | 74.6 | 24.3° | 1 |
| Sinker | 195 | 12.9% | -0.9 | 86.9 | 12.1° | 2 |
| Splitter | 165 | 10.9% | -0.4 | 81.3 | -7.7° | 0 |
| Slider | 72 | 4.8% | -3.7 | 82.4 | 7.1° | 0 |
Quality of Contact
Barrel%
0.0%
HardHit%
68.5%
All Scored Matchups
| Date | Batter | Rank | Score | Tier | Form | HR? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Blake Dunn | #238 | 20 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-26 | Matt McLain | #202 | 32 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-26 | Eugenio Suárez | #193 | 33 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-26 | Tyler Stephenson | #184 | 34 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-26 | Sal Stewart | #139 | 42 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-26 | Nathaniel Lowe | #133 | 43 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-26 | Elly De La Cruz | #108 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-26 | Spencer Steer | #102 | 48 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-26 | JJ Bleday | #64 | 55 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-20 | Jake McCarthy | #173 | 34 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-06-20 | Willi Castro | #168 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-20 | Troy Johnston | #167 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-20 | Ezequiel Tovar | #164 | 35 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-20 | Edouard Julien | #157 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-20 | TJ Rumfield | #96 | 48 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-20 | Sterlin Thompson | #53 | 58 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-20 | Hunter Goodman | #8 | 75 | 🟡 B | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Jakob Marsee | #230 | 14 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Joe Mack | #225 | 19 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-06-14 | Xavier Edwards | #222 | 21 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Otto Lopez | #197 | 29 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Connor Norby | #180 | 35 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Liam Hicks | #168 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Kyle Stowers | #166 | 38 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-14 | Owen Caissie | #146 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Alex Freeland | #207 | 27 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Kyle Tucker | #206 | 28 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Mookie Betts | #190 | 31 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Freddie Freeman | #127 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Max Muncy | #115 | 45 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Shohei Ohtani | #94 | 49 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Dalton Rushing | #75 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-09 | Andy Pages | #68 | 52 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-06-03 | Nick Allen | #232 | 25 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Christian Vázquez | #218 | 27 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Isaac Paredes | #207 | 30 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | 💥 |
| 2026-06-03 | Jake Meyers | #173 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Zach Dezenzo | #142 | 40 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Cam Smith | #120 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Jeremy Peña | #115 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Christian Walker | #14 | 68 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-06-03 | Yordan Alvarez | #3 | 75 | 🟡 B | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-28 | Nico Hoerner | #106 | 14 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-28 | Dansby Swanson | #93 | 26 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-28 | Alex Bregman | #91 | 27 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-28 | Seiya Suzuki | #84 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-28 | Moisés Ballesteros | #76 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-28 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | #72 | 36 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-28 | Miguel Amaya | #52 | 41 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-28 | Michael Busch | #44 | 42 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-28 | Ian Happ | #34 | 46 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-23 | Tyler Heineman | #288 | 10 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-23 | Lenyn Sosa | #270 | 22 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | Yohendrick Piñango | #260 | 24 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | #244 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | Ernie Clement | #236 | 30 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | Andrés Giménez | #226 | 32 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | George Springer | #219 | 34 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-23 | Daulton Varsho | #208 | 36 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-23 | Jesús Sánchez | #203 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Alec Bohm | #261 | 13 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | J.T. Realmuto | #258 | 16 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Trea Turner | #244 | 20 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Brandon Marsh | #223 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Adolis García | #217 | 29 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Justin Crawford | #210 | 30 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-17 | Bryson Stott | #179 | 37 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | 💥 |
| 2026-05-17 | Bryce Harper | #54 | 61 | 🔵 C+ | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-05-17 | Kyle Schwarber | #12 | 81 | 🟢 A | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Brenton Doyle | #252 | 5 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Kyle Karros | #245 | 10 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Ezequiel Tovar | #244 | 11 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Willi Castro | #231 | 15 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Troy Johnston | #225 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | TJ Rumfield | #215 | 20 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Edouard Julien | #202 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Mickey Moniak | #67 | 39 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-12 | Hunter Goodman | #42 | 43 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Geraldo Perdomo | #267 | 7 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Alek Thomas | #258 | 11 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Jorge Barrosa | #254 | 12 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Jose Fernandez | #253 | 12 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Nolan Arenado | #242 | 15 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Ketel Marte | #236 | 16 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Adrian Del Castillo | #233 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Corbin Carroll | #218 | 19 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-05-06 | Ildemaro Vargas | #191 | 23 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Masyn Winn | #172 | 11 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Alec Burleson | #142 | 17 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Nolan Gorman | #132 | 18 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Victor Scott II | #120 | 21 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-30 | JJ Wetherholt | #86 | 28 | ⚪ D | · — | 💥 |
| 2026-04-30 | Pedro Pagés | #63 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Jordan Walker | #62 | 35 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-30 | Iván Herrera | #61 | 35 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-30 | Nathan Church | #41 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-24 | David Hamilton | #241 | 17 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Brandon Lockridge | #234 | 21 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Sal Frelick | #225 | 24 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Tyler Black | #185 | 35 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Luis Rengifo | #175 | 37 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-24 | William Contreras | #150 | 45 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Garrett Mitchell | #119 | 50 | 🟠 C | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Jake Bauers | #98 | 56 | 🟠 C | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-24 | Brice Turang | #82 | 59 | 🟠 C | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-18 | Chandler Simpson | #268 | 6 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-18 | Ben Williamson | #265 | 8 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-18 | Nick Fortes | #264 | 10 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-18 | Cedric Mullins | #263 | 11 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-18 | Jake Fraley | #215 | 27 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-18 | Yandy Díaz | #210 | 28 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-18 | Junior Caminero | #193 | 32 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-18 | Jonny DeLuca | #187 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-18 | Jonathan Aranda | #171 | 36 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-07 | Luis Arraez | #239 | 15 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-07 | Jose Iglesias | #237 | 12 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-07 | Xander Bogaerts | #235 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | 💥 |
| 2026-04-07 | Jake Cronenworth | #234 | 23 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-07 | Elias Diaz | #227 | 25 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-04-07 | Gavin Sheets | #211 | 30 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-07 | Manny Machado | #198 | 33 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-04-07 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | #189 | 32 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-07 | Jackson Merrill | #157 | 34 | ⚪ D | ➖ NTRL | · |
| 2026-04-01 | Santiago Espinal | #243 | 19 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-01 | Gavin Lux | #226 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-01 | TJ Friedl | #204 | 31 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-01 | Matt McLain | #184 | 36 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-01 | Spencer Steer | #164 | 41 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-01 | Austin Hays | #133 | 45 | ⚪ D | 📉 COOL | · |
| 2026-04-01 | Noelvi Marte | #124 | 44 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-04-01 | Elly De La Cruz | #117 | 43 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-04-01 | Tyler Stephenson | #91 | 47 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-26 | Tyrone Taylor | #152 | 24 | ⚪ D | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-26 | Jeff McNeil | #146 | 33 | ⚪ D | 📈 WARM | · |
| 2026-03-26 | Starling Marte | #126 | 32 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-03-26 | Mark Vientos | #113 | 38 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-26 | Brandon Nimmo | #110 | 36 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-26 | Francisco Lindor | #109 | 39 | ⚪ D | · — | · |
| 2026-03-26 | Pete Alonso | #83 | 50 | 🟠 C | 🔥 HOT | · |
| 2026-03-26 | Brett Baty | #75 | 40 | ⚪ D | ❄ COLD | · |
| 2026-03-26 | Juan Soto | #63 | 51 | 🟠 C | 📉 COOL | · |