2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Kazuma Okamoto 6 HRs · 3 Wyatt Langford 6 HRs · 4 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 5 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Brandon Marsh 4 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Brooks Lee 4 HRs · 10 Mookie Betts 4 HRs · 11 Joc Pederson 4 HRs · 12 Junior Caminero 4 HRs
Jacob Misiorowski
Jacob Misiorowski RHP MIL
133 matchups scored · 15 game days
5 HRs Allowed
3.8% HR Rate (Pool)
15.6% Overall HR/FB
2.66 FIP
2.52 xFIP
+0.14 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
0.33
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
15.6%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
77th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
58.9%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
2.66
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
9th pctile
2.52
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.14
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
57th pctile
3.8%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
133
Pool Matchups
5
HRs Allowed (Pool)
5
Top-15 Matchups
0
HRs to Top-15
3.8%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 9 1 1 11.1% 1.0 92.5mph 103.8mph 24.0° 409ft Up +7.3pp
Last 15 25 3 2 8.0% 0.67 95.0mph 100.7mph 30.0° 392ft Up +4.2pp
Last 30 43 5 2 4.7% 0.4 94.2mph 100.7mph 30.0° 392ft Flat +0.9pp
Batted-Ball Damage
107 tracked BBE from 133 pool matchups
94.9
111.7
63
0
100.6
29.2°
386
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-26 Carson Kelly 105.4mph · · · ·
2026-06-26 Seiya Suzuki 103.8mph 103.8mph 24° 409ft Yes
2026-06-26 Michael Busch 101.9mph · · · ·
2026-06-26 Alex Bregman 100.0mph · · · ·
2026-06-19 Jorge Mateo 103.2mph · · · ·
2026-06-19 Dominic Smith 101.7mph · · · ·
2026-06-19 Mike Yastrzemski 101.7mph 97.5mph 36° 374ft Yes
2026-06-12 Kyle Schwarber 103.3mph · · · ·
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
15 days · 5 total HRs
HRs Allowed
5 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-26 Seiya Suzuki #144 41 American Family Field 103.8mph 24.0° 409ft
2026-06-19 Mike Yastrzemski #201 24 Truist Park 97.5mph 36.0° 374ft
2026-05-13 Gavin Sheets #63 40 American Family Field 98.1mph 25.0° 389.0ft
2026-04-14 Andres Gimenez #74 36 American Family Field 101.3mph 33.0° 392.0ft
2026-04-01 Yandy Diaz #20 45 American Family Field 102.3mph 28.0° 364.0ft
Pitch Arsenal
higher RV = more hittable
Pitch Pitches Usage RV/100 Avg EV Avg LA HRs
Fastball 910 63.7% -2.1 82.9 26.6° 3
Slider 191 13.4% -3.0 80.7 11.5° 1
Curveball 149 10.4% -0.8 82.7 1.6° 0
Cutter 144 10.1% -5.3 79.1 9.2° 0
Changeup 34 2.4% -4.1 84.2 41.6° 0
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
58.9%
58.9%
All Scored Matchups
133 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-26 Nico Hoerner #221 26 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-26 Alex Bregman #194 33 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-26 Carson Kelly #189 34 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-26 Seiya Suzuki #144 41 ⚪ D 📈 WARM 💥
2026-06-26 Matt Shaw #125 45 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-26 Michael Busch #124 45 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-26 Dansby Swanson #101 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-26 Ian Happ #65 55 🟠 C ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-26 Pete Crow-Armstrong #32 61 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-19 Mike Yastrzemski #201 24 ⚪ D 📉 COOL 💥
2026-06-19 Dominic Smith #184 29 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-19 Ozzie Albies #182 30 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-19 Mauricio Dubón #176 31 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-19 Austin Riley #163 35 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-19 Jorge Mateo #141 40 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-19 Eli White #102 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-19 Drake Baldwin #83 50 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-19 Matt Olson #48 58 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-12 Justin Crawford #228 17 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-12 Trea Turner #216 23 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-12 Bryson Stott #152 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Alec Bohm #129 43 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Brandon Marsh #93 49 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Bryce Harper #52 58 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Kyle Schwarber #31 63 🔵 C+ 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Edouard Julien #217 24 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-06 Tyler Freeman #192 31 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-06 Troy Johnston #171 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-06 TJ Rumfield #152 38 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-06 Ezequiel Tovar #145 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-06 Brett Sullivan #141 41 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-06 Kyle Karros #128 43 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-06 Jake McCarthy #120 44 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-06 Hunter Goodman #21 67 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-31 Nick Allen #244 25 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-31 Christian Vázquez #234 27 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-31 Taylor Trammell #233 27 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-31 Isaac Paredes #219 30 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-31 Jake Meyers #183 36 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-31 Jeremy Peña #181 37 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-31 Cam Smith #164 40 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-31 Christian Walker #41 64 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-31 Yordan Alvarez #29 69 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-25 Victor Scott II #230 12 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-25 Masyn Winn #217 20 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-25 Bryan Torres #204 25 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-25 Pedro Pagés #193 28 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-25 Nolan Gorman #157 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-25 Alec Burleson #148 37 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-25 JJ Wetherholt #139 38 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-25 Iván Herrera #115 42 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-25 Jordan Walker #20 65 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-19 Nico Hoerner #217 25 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-19 Alex Bregman #158 36 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-19 Pete Crow-Armstrong #135 39 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-19 Miguel Amaya #124 41 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-19 Dansby Swanson #85 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-19 Seiya Suzuki #84 48 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-19 Michael Busch #67 53 🟠 C 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-19 Moisés Ballesteros #40 61 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-19 Ian Happ #10 77 🟡 B 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-13 Fernando Tatis Jr. #257 8 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-13 Jake Cronenworth #236 15 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-13 Nick Castellanos #179 26 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-13 Xander Bogaerts #178 26 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-13 Jackson Merrill #153 28 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-13 Manny Machado #114 33 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-13 Ramón Laureano #113 33 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-13 Miguel Andujar #78 38 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-13 Gavin Sheets #63 40 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-05-08 José Caballero #157 22 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-08 Ryan McMahon #131 26 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-08 Austin Wells #107 30 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-08 Trent Grisham #91 32 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-08 Cody Bellinger #90 32 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-08 Giancarlo Stanton #76 34 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-08 Jazz Chisholm Jr. #75 34 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-08 Ben Rice #42 44 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-05-08 Aaron Judge #32 46 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-01 Nasim Nuñez #159 25 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-01 Jacob Young #121 29 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-05-01 Jorbit Vivas #56 37 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-01 Luis García Jr. #45 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-01 CJ Abrams #32 41 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-05-01 Daylen Lile #27 42 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-01 Brady House #26 43 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-05-01 Curtis Mead #13 48 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-05-01 James Wood #1 55 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-25 Nick Gonzales #250 21 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-25 Nick Yorke #180 37 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-25 Spencer Horwitz #169 40 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-25 Konnor Griffin #164 41 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-04-25 Bryan Reynolds #153 43 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-25 Marcell Ozuna #149 44 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-25 Ryan O'Hearn #127 48 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-25 Brandon Lowe #65 61 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-25 Oneil Cruz #17 77 🟡 B 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-19 Graham Pauley #220 24 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-19 Jakob Marsee #216 25 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-19 Liam Hicks #180 34 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-19 Kyle Stowers #176 35 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-19 Agustín Ramírez #170 36 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-19 Xavier Edwards #158 38 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-19 Connor Norby #119 46 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-19 Otto Lopez #71 57 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-19 Owen Caissie #42 64 🔵 C+ 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-14 Ernie Clement #88 26 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-14 Myles Straw #84 24 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-14 Andres Gimenez #74 36 ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-04-14 Alejandro Kirk #61 39 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-14 Nathan Lukes #56 30 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-14 Bo Bichette #47 40 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-14 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #40 51 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-14 Addison Barger #20 38 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-14 George Springer #16 58 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-07 Abraham Toro #170 27 ⚪ D · — ·
2026-04-07 Ceddanne Rafaela #165 34 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-04-07 Jarren Duran #150 37 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-07 Romy Gonzalez #129 38 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-07 Roman Anthony #122 39 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-07 Carlos Narvaez #121 36 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-07 Trevor Story #120 35 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-07 Alex Bregman #50 36 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT ·
2026-04-07 Wilyer Abreu #20 44 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-01 Chandler Simpson #241 17 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-01 Jake Mangum #215 26 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-01 Taylor Walls #205 30 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-01 Josh Lowe #61 38 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-01 Christopher Morel #37 48 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-04-01 Jonathan Aranda #36 46 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-04-01 Yandy Diaz #20 45 ⚪ D 🔥 HOT 💥
2026-04-01 Brandon Lowe #12 52 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-04-01 Junior Caminero #8 58 🟠 C 📈 WARM ·
Six home runs to freedom

Jacob Misiorowski's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

133 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.21 · build 521

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.